Ronin/Bitcoin (RONINBTC) Market Overview – October 11, 2025

• Price action showed a bearish reversal late ET with a sharp selloff from 3.8e-06 to 2.65e-06 before stabilizing.
• Momentum turned bearish on RSI and MACD divergence with volume spiking during the decline.
• Volatility expanded during the 21:30–22:00 ET range, with Bollinger Bands showing a key contraction followed by a breakout.
• Turnover spiked 300% during the selloff, indicating strong institutional or algorithmic selling pressure.
• Fibonacci retracement levels at 3.36e-06 and 3.32e-06 acted as temporary supports and may be retested.

The Ronin/Bitcoin (RONINBTC) pair opened at 3.78e-06 on October 10 at 12:00 ET and closed at 3.34e-06 on October 11 at 12:00 ET, with a high of 5.03e-06 and a low of 9e-07 during the 24-hour window. Total volume traded was approximately 392,293.17 RONIN, and notional turnover came to ~$1,336.65 (assuming $65,000 BTC price). The pair displayed a strong bearish bias with a large bearish engulfing pattern forming at the peak and a deep pullback following.

Structure & Formations

A sharp bearish reversal occurred during the 21:30–21:45 ET session when price dropped from 3.76e-06 to 2.65e-06, forming a large bearish engulfing candle. A key support at 3.22e-06 held during the recovery attempt, but a bearish pinbar at 3.36e-06 signaled ongoing pressure. A doji formed at 3.35e-06 during the 04:45–05:00 ET window, indicating indecision, though the trend remained bearish.

Moving Averages

The 15-minute chart showed RONINBTC closing below its 20SMA and 50SMA, reinforcing bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50DMA and 100DMA crossed bearishly, while the 200DMA acted as a strong resistance. Price remains below all three, with a potential test of the 200DMA at ~3.45e-06 in the near term.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned bearish in the 21:30–22:00 ET range, with a bearish crossover confirming the selloff. RSI dipped into oversold territory at ~30 during the 22:00–23:30 ET window, suggesting a potential rebound, though without a strong bullish signal. A bearish divergence was evident between the price and RSI as price continued lower while RSI flattened out.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a sharp contraction just before the selloff, followed by a large expansion as price dropped to 2.65e-06. Price has since stabilized near the lower band at 3.34e-06, with the upper band at ~3.47e-06 acting as resistance. A break above the mid-band at ~3.40e-06 could indicate a short-term reversal, but confirmation is needed.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked dramatically during the 21:30–22:00 ET selloff, with over 215,099.42 RONIN traded in the 21:45–22:00 ET session alone. Notional turnover increased by ~300% compared to the previous 24 hours, suggesting increased selling pressure. A divergence between price and volume was observed during the recovery attempt post-22:00 ET, with lower volume and minimal price movement.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the recent 3.76e-06 to 2.65e-06 move, key levels at 3.36e-06 (38.2%) and 3.32e-06 (61.8%) acted as strong supports. Price appears to have found a temporary floor at 3.32e-06 and may retest this level for confirmation of a potential bounce. A break below 3.32e-06 could extend the move toward 3.28e-06, with the 2.65e-06 low as a worst-case downside.

Looking ahead, RONINBTC may consolidate near 3.34e-06 with potential for a short-term rebound if the 3.36e-06 and 3.40e-06 levels hold. Traders should monitor volume and RSI for signs of exhaustion or reversal. A breakout above 3.47e-06 or a retest of 3.32e-06 with strong volume may offer high-probability trade setups. As always, volatility remains elevated, and a further selloff toward 3.28e-06 cannot be ruled out.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve short entries on a close below the 3.36e-06 Fibonacci level, confirmed by a bearish divergence on RSI and a bearish MACD crossover. Stop-loss could be placed above the 3.40e-06 resistance or the 3.37e-06 intraday high, while take-profit targets could include 3.32e-06 (61.8% Fib), 3.28e-06 (key support), and 3.22e-06 (recent low). This approach aligns with the observed bearish momentum and key technical levels identified in the analysis, offering a structured and rule-based method for capitalizing on the current downtrend.