Romanian Presidential Election: A Crossroads for Democracy and Investment

The 2025 Romanian presidential election, set for May 4 and 18, has become a high-stakes contest with far-reaching implications for the country’s geopolitical alignment and economic stability. The rerun—annulled in December 2024 over concerns of Russian interference—now faces the prospect of electing an ultranationalist candidate, George Simion of the Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR), who leads in polls with 30% support. His rise threatens to disrupt Romania’s pro-Western trajectory, with implications for foreign investors, regional security, and EU cohesion.

The Candidates and Their Agendas

The election features a polarized field dominated by four main candidates:

1. George Simion (AUR): A far-right leader advocating a “greater Romania” through territorial claims on Moldova, Ukraine, and Bulgaria. Simion opposes EU leadership, criticizes NATO’s reliance on non-U.S. allies, and has moderated his pro-Moscow rhetoric to appeal to voters. His campaign emphasizes anti-EU sovereignty and economic nationalism, with rural and diaspora voters as his base.
2. Nicușor Dan (Independent): A pro-EU centrist and Bucharest mayor polling at 29.6%, he represents continuity with EU integration and NATO membership but struggles to unite urban elites.
3. Crin Antonescu (Coalition-backed): A centrist senator backed by the Social Democrats and National Liberals, polling at 19.6%, he seeks to maintain pro-Western policies but is hamstrung by ties to the “old guard” blamed for corruption.
4. Victor Ponta (Pro Romania): A former prime minister turned ultranationalist, polling at 14%, he advocates “Romania first” policies, including halting Ukrainian grain imports and skepticism toward EU directives.

Risks of a Far-Right Victory

A Simion presidency poses significant risks for investors and regional stability:

• Geopolitical Tensions: Simion’s territorial claims risk destabilizing the Black Sea region. His calls to revisit Romania’s 1939 borders could strain relations with Ukraine and Moldova, both NATO/EU aspirants.
• EU/NATO Alignment: While Simion claims to support NATO membership, his opposition to military aid for Ukraine and alignment with Trump’s MAGA movement raise concerns about Romania’s reliability as a NATO frontline state.
• Economic Uncertainty: His anti-EU rhetoric could deter foreign investment. Romania’s economy, already struggling with a 33% poverty rate and median income at one-third of the EU average, relies on EU funds and diaspora remittances. A far-right shift might lead to protectionist policies, such as tariffs on Ukrainian goods, harming trade.

The BVB index has fluctuated amid political uncertainty, falling 12% since the election annulment in December . Investors may react negatively to a Simion victory, particularly in sectors reliant on EU grants, like energy and infrastructure.

Opportunities Amid the Chaos

Despite risks, a Simion presidency could create niche opportunities:

• Nationalist-Friendly Sectors: Simion’s emphasis on “economic sovereignty” may favor locally owned businesses in agriculture and manufacturing.
• Diaspora Capital: His strong support among the 7M-strong diaspora could boost real estate and consumer sectors in rural areas.

The Centrist Counteroffensive

Pro-EU candidates are fighting to block Simion’s rise. A Dan-Antonescu coalition could secure a runoff, but their urban-focused platforms risk alienating rural voters. A Simion-Dan runoff would likely favor Simion, given his rural base and diaspora appeal.

Conclusion: A Test for Democracy and Capital

Romania’s election is a referendum on its democratic resilience. A Simion victory would mark a historic shift toward ultranationalism, with consequences for:
- Foreign Investment: Sectors tied to EU funding, such as renewable energy and transportation, face uncertainty.
- Geopolitical Stability: NATO’s southern flank could grow more volatile amid territorial disputes.
- Economic Growth: Protectionist policies may stifle trade, exacerbating poverty.

Investors should monitor the election closely. A Simion win could trigger a 15–20% dip in the BVB index, while a centrist outcome might stabilize markets. For now, the stakes are clear: Romania’s choice between nationalism and integration will shape its economic future and its place in Europe.

Romania’s GDP has grown modestly (3.2% average annual growth), but its Corruption Perceptions Index score remains low (41/100), reflecting systemic issues that far-right candidates exploit. Investors must weigh short-term risks against long-term opportunities in a country pivotal to regional security.

The world watches as Romania decides whether to turn inward—or remain anchored to the West.