Romania Bans Unlicensed Prediction Markets as Gambling

Romania's National Office for Gambling (ONJN) has blacklisted Polymarket, one of the world's largest prediction markets, for operating without a license in the country. The regulator classified the platform's activities as "counterparty betting"—a form of gambling requiring a license—citing its use of user stakes to wager on real-world events, according to Yahoo News. The decision, announced on October 31, follows a surge in betting activity during recent national and local elections, with over $600 million wagered on the presidential race and $15 million on Bucharest's mayoral elections, according to Decrypt.

ONJN President Vlad-Cristian Soare emphasized that the ban is rooted in legal, not technological, concerns. "Regardless of whether you bet in lei or crypto, if you bet money on a future result under the conditions of a counterpart bet, we are talking about gambling that must be licensed," he stated, as reported by SBC News. The regulator argued that Polymarket's model—where users trade shares based on the outcomes of events like political elections or corporate announcements—falls squarely within Romania's gambling laws. "Accepting the idea that counterparty betting can be called trading would create a dangerous precedent," the ONJN added, warning of risks to player protection, anti-money laundering (AML) compliance, and state fiscal control.

The crackdown places Romania among a growing list of jurisdictions targeting Polymarket. France geo-blocked the platform in late 2024, Belgium declared it illegal in February 2025, and the U.S. forced it to exit in 2022 after a $1.4 million fine for operating as an unregistered swap execution facility, according to the Yahoo article. Despite these challenges, Polymarket has sought to re-enter the U.S. market via its recent acquisition of a CFTC-licensed derivatives exchange and secured a $2 billion investment from Intercontinental Exchange, the owner of the New York Stock Exchange.

Romania's move highlights the platform's rapid global expansion, particularly during high-profile events. A single market on Polymarket predicting Bucharest's mayor amassed $16 million in volume, while another related to the presidential election hit $370 million, according to SBC News. ONJN noted that such activity "evades legal obligations imposed on licensed operators," including tax payments and player safeguards, as reported by Lookonchain. The regulator has instructed internet service providers to block access to Polymarket for Romanian users "within a reasonable period of time," per the Yahoo article.

Polymarket has not yet responded to requests for comment. The platform's CEO, Shayne Coplan, previously stated the company aims to operate "within regulated frameworks," but its absence of licenses in EU jurisdictions remains a hurdle, as Decrypt reported. With four European regulators now formally banning it, the platform faces mounting pressure to navigate complex legal landscapes as it pursues global growth.

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