AS Roma Fan Token/Tether Market Overview

• Price surged 22% to $2.099 before retreating to $1.783 amid volatile intraday swings
• Strong bearish reversal confirmed on 17:30 ET candle with 25.2% drop to $1.717
• MACD momentum diverged early in rally while RSI hit overbought levels above 70
• Bollinger Band contraction preceded key breakouts and breakdowns
• Turnover spiked 3.4x on 17:30 ET candle suggesting potential short-term exhaustion

AS Roma Fan Token/Tether (ASRUSDT) opened at $1.748 on 2025-10-31 12:00 ET, surged to a high of $2.099, then retreated to a low of $1.549 before closing at $1.783 on 2025-11-01 12:00 ET. The 24-hour trading volume amounted to 11,031,569.0 units, with a notional turnover of $18,847,268.71 (calculated from OHLC and volume data).

Structure & Formations

Price action displayed multiple key resistance and support levels within the 24-hour window. A notable resistance cluster formed around $2.09–2.099 during the early afternoon surge, while a strong support level was identified near $1.717 following the 17:30 ET breakdown candle. A large bearish engulfing pattern on the 17:30 ET candle confirmed the shift from bullish to bearish momentum. A series of lower highs and lower lows following this candle suggested a continuation of the bearish trend.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart showed a bearish crossover during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Price action dropped below both moving averages, indicating a potential continuation of the bearish trend. For daily timeframes, the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages remained uncomputed due to insufficient data, but the recent bearish momentum may suggest price could test key historical support levels on longer timeframes.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed a clear bearish divergence early in the upward move, with price peaking at $2.099 while the MACD histogram and line failed to confirm the strength. RSI hit overbought territory above 70 during the rally, but failed to hold, confirming the bearish exhaustion. As the price declined, RSI dropped below 40, signaling a potential oversold condition that may not yet justify a strong reversal, given the absence of bullish confirmation from volume or other indicators.

Bollinger Bands

The 15-minute Bollinger Bands showed a contraction before the breakout to $2.099 and later a similar contraction before the breakdown to $1.717. Price action broke below the lower band on the 17:30 ET candle, indicating high volatility and a possible continuation of the bearish move. The current price sits slightly above the 20-period Bollinger Band midline, suggesting moderate volatility but no clear breakout signal.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged significantly on the 17:30 ET candle, with a turnover spike of 1.47M units and $2.65M in notional value, representing 3.4x the average volume in the preceding hours. This spike coincided with the breakdown to $1.717, suggesting strong bearish conviction. However, volume has since declined in the late night and early morning hours, indicating possible exhaustion or a period of consolidation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 17:30 ET breakdown from $2.099 to $1.717, key levels include 38.2% at $1.882 and 61.8% at $1.967. Price action closed at $1.783, indicating that further retracement may be expected before any potential reversal. On a broader scale, Fibonacci levels from earlier swings also suggest a potential continuation of the bearish trend toward $1.65–$1.60.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the clear MACD top divergence during the upward move to $2.099, a backtest strategy could be built around identifying and acting on similar divergence signals for ASRUSDT. Once the correct trading pair and exchange are confirmed (e.g., BINANCE: ASRUSDT), the MACD top divergence indicator can be re-run over the historical 2022–2025 data. A 1-day holding period following the divergence signal would allow assessment of potential returns. This approach could provide insight into whether divergences have historically led to bearish reversals in this asset, supporting or refuting the current technical narrative.