Rolex Prices Stabilize as Luxury Watch Market Shows Signs of Recovery

The luxury watch market, particularly for Rolex, has stabilized and may be turning a corner after a dramatic boom-and-bust in the past five years. The Bloomberg Subdial Watch Index has recovered from its post-pandemic low, and WatchCharts' Overall Market Index fell 0.3% in Q2, the slowest decline since 2022. Luxury demand is correlated with financial assets, and stock markets and Bitcoin have recovered, boosting interest in watches. Tariffs may also be affecting the market, stimulating interest in pre-owned models.

The luxury watch market, particularly for Rolex, has stabilized and may be turning a corner after a dramatic boom-and-bust in the past five years. The Bloomberg Subdial Watch Index has recovered from its post-pandemic low, and WatchCharts' Overall Market Index fell 0.3% in Q2, the slowest decline since 2022 [2]. Luxury demand is correlated with financial assets, and stock markets and Bitcoin have recovered, boosting interest in watches. Tariffs may also be affecting the market, stimulating interest in pre-owned models.

The Rolex Land-Dweller, introduced earlier this year at Watches and Wonders Geneva, has made its debut in the secondary market with a significant sale. The first publicly available Land-Dweller sold for $51,250 on eBay Live, more than three times its $15,350 retail price [1]. This sale confirms the watch's status as a serious competitor to integrated luxury sports watches like the Audemars Piguet Royal Oak. The unworn 40mm stainless steel model, complete with box and papers, was listed by Tanner and Company with a starting bid of $15,000, just below the suggested retail price. However, intense bidding drove the final sale price to $51,250, just $2,000 shy of the combined retail prices of a Land-Dweller and Royal Oak “Jumbo.”

The Land-Dweller's astronomical first sale price places it firmly in the territory of hyped luxury sports watches, suggesting that Rolex's most hyped new model in years will follow similar secondary market trajectories to its Swiss competitors. Two scenarios emerge for future Land-Dweller pricing. Either this first sale represents an inflated outlier that will normalize as more examples reach the market, or the extreme sale price will further inflate collector desire, driving values even higher for subsequent sales.

Given Rolex’s history with secondary market pricing and the general trajectory of integrated luxury sports watches, the latter scenario appears more likely. The Land-Dweller’s combination of revolutionary movement technology, integrated bracelet design, and Rolex’s unparalleled brand recognition creates perfect conditions for sustained secondary market premiums. The $51,250 sale price demonstrates that despite the Land-Dweller’s relatively accessible retail pricing, actual market access remains limited to those willing to pay significant premiums. This reality reinforces the watch’s position as a true competitor to the Royal Oak and Nautilus, not just in design and technical execution, but in market desirability and pricing power.

The secondary market for pre-owned Swiss watches has shown signs of recovery, with prices stabilizing further in the second quarter. Key brands including Cartier, Omega, Rolex, and Patek Philippe outperformed the wider market and paced declines to the slowest since the peak of early 2022 [2]. While prices for pre-owned Swiss watches have declined for 13 straight quarters from the post-pandemic era peak, the performance of secondary market watch prices can serve as an indicator of a brand's perceived strength and equity value among consumers.

The luxury watch market's recovery is a positive sign for investors and financial professionals, indicating that the market may be returning to a more stable footing after several years of volatility. As luxury demand continues to be correlated with financial assets, the recovery of stock markets and Bitcoin may further boost interest in watches. Additionally, tariffs may be stimulating interest in pre-owned models, providing opportunities for investors and collectors alike.

References:
[1] https://www.themanual.com/fashion/rolex-land-dweller-secondary-market-value-ebay-auction-51250-royal-oak-competitor/
[2] https://www.hodinkee.com/articles/used-watch-market-prices-enjoy-best-performance-in-more-than-three-years-as-cartier-omega-rolex-and