Is Rogers Communications (RCI.B) A Buy Ahead Of 2026?

The question of whether Rogers Communications (RCI.B) represents a compelling investment opportunity in the lead-up to 2026 hinges on two critical factors: the extent of valuation dislocation in its stock and the company's ability to capitalize on post-Shaw integration synergies. After a year marked by strategic acquisitions, operational refinements, and evolving market dynamics, the Canadian telecom giant finds itself at a crossroads. This analysis evaluates the current landscape, drawing on recent financial results, analyst sentiment, and integration progress to assess its investment potential.

Valuation Dislocation: A Narrow Window?

Rogers' stock has seen modest analyst upgrades in late 2025, with JPMorgan raising its price target to C$62 from C$59, citing stronger EBITDA growth expectations and cost efficiencies. Meanwhile, the company's fair value estimate has edged upward to approximately C$59.04, reflecting improved long-term revenue assumptions. While the current stock price as of December 2025 remains undisclosed in available sources, the trajectory of analyst targets suggests a potential undervaluation if the stock trades below these benchmarks.

The company's financial metrics further support this narrative. In Q3 2025, Rogers reported total revenue of $5.35 billion, a 4.3% year-over-year increase, driven by a 26% surge in Media segment revenue following the acquisition of Maple Leaf Sports & Entertainment (MLSE). Despite a 1.2% decline in consolidated adjusted EBITDA to $2.52 billion, the 47% margin and raised full-year free cash flow (FCF) guidance to $3.2–$3.3 billion underscore resilience. With a debt leverage ratio of 3.9x, the MLSE acquisition's impact is evident, but the company's ability to maintain FCF growth-despite higher tax payments-signals operational strength.

Growth Potential: Post-Shaw Integration Synergies

The integration of Shaw Communications, a $26 billion acquisition finalized in 2022, remains a cornerstone of Rogers' long-term strategy. While progress has been gradual, the combined entity is now a coast-to-coast communications provider with a national wireless network. Analysts project that cost synergies could reach $1 billion annually by the end of 2025, with further gains expected in 2026.

Key initiatives include a $2.5 billion 5G investment plan for Western Canada over five years, a $3 billion network modernization fund, and a $1 billion Rural and Indigenous Connectivity Fund. These investments are designed to bolster Rogers' competitive edge in a market where wireless churn rates have hit multi-year lows (0.99% postpaid churn in Q3 2025). Additionally, the rollout of services like Rogers Xfinity Pro and expanded satellite coverage highlights the company's focus on innovation.

Looking ahead, analysts anticipate FCF to grow from CA$1.34 billion in the last twelve months to CA$3.31 billion by 2026. This trajectory, coupled with single-digit service revenue and EBITDA growth guidance for 2025, positions Rogers to deliver value as integration synergies crystallize. However, skepticism persists among investors, as the stock has shown modest declines in recent quarters, reflecting concerns about the pace of synergy realization.

Risks and Considerations

While the integration progress is encouraging, challenges remain. The debt burden from the MLSE acquisition has elevated leverage to 3.9x, and the wireless segment's modest growth (0.3% service revenue decline in Q3 2025) highlights competitive pressures. Additionally, the absence of a clear stock price as of December 2025 complicates precise valuation analysis, though the company's strong FCF generation and strategic investments suggest a buffer against near-term volatility.

Conclusion: A Buy for the Long-Term

Rogers Communications' valuation appears to reflect a narrow dislocation relative to analyst targets, particularly if the stock trades below C$59–C$62. The company's post-Shaw integration strategy, while still in progress, is laying the groundwork for 2026 growth through cost synergies, network investments, and expanded service offerings. While risks such as debt levels and competitive pressures persist, the alignment of financial performance with analyst expectations and the company's reaffirmed 2025 guidance suggests a compelling long-term case for investors willing to ride out integration challenges.

For those with a 2026 horizon, Rogers' strategic momentum and improving operational metrics make it a buy-provided the company continues to execute on its integration roadmap and delivers on its FCF and EBITDA growth promises.