Rocket Pool/USDC Market Overview (RPLUSDC)

• Rocket Pool/USDC fell 2.89% in 24 hours, closing near a prior support level of 3.28.
• A sharp bearish reversal formed near 3.35, with a potential short-term bottom at 3.2.
• Volume spiked during the sell-off, but turnover lagged, indicating mixed conviction.
• RSI reached oversold territory, suggesting potential for near-term bounce or consolidation.
• Bollinger Bands compressed during consolidation, hinting at an upcoming breakout.

Market Summary and Key Levels

Rocket Pool/USDC (RPLUSDC) opened at 3.37 at 12:00 ET-1 and closed at 3.28 at 12:00 ET today, with a high of 3.41 and a low of 3.20 over the 24-hour period. Total volume traded was 4,968.23, and the notional turnover was 16,449.62. The price action displayed clear bearish pressure with a breakdown from a key resistance near 3.35 to a new 15-day low at 3.20. The formation of a Bearish Engulfing candle during the breakdown from 3.35 and a Bullish Harami at 3.28 suggests potential for a consolidation or reversal.

Support & Resistance

Key support levels are forming at 3.28 and 3.20, with 3.18 as the next potential short-term support. Resistance levels appear at 3.35 and 3.38, where the market has previously stalled. A retest of 3.35 could trigger a bearish continuation if volume remains strong. The Bullish Harami near 3.28 may indicate a possible short-term reversal, though a breakout above 3.30 would be required to confirm bullish sentiment.

Trend and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs have both shifted bearish, aligning with the price’s descent. The MACD histogram has turned negative and remains below the signal line, signaling ongoing bearish momentum. The RSI has fallen to the 30–34 range, suggesting oversold conditions. This may trigger a near-term rebound or consolidation, though sustained volume is needed to confirm any reversal.

The Bollinger Bands have narrowed significantly during the consolidation phase, with the price hovering near the lower band. A breakout from the bands could indicate a continuation of the trend, with the upper band near 3.41 acting as a key psychological level for bulls to challenge.

Volume and Turnover

Volume surged during the sell-off from 3.35 to 3.20, with key spikes in the 1430–1630 time window. However, notional turnover lagged, indicating that while the move was significant in volume, it did not translate into large capital outflows. This may suggest a bearish exhaustion phase is forming, particularly if the next few candles form a bullish reversal pattern.

Divergence between volume and price appears at the 3.20 level, where volume declined after a sharp drop, signaling possible buyer interest.

Fibonacci and Key Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the most recent 15-minute swing from 3.35 to 3.20, key levels at 3.28 (61.8%) and 3.26 (50%) are now in play. A close above 3.28 would indicate a potential bounce, while a breakdown below 3.26 could target the 3.23 (38.2%) level. On a broader scale, the daily chart shows a key Fibonacci level at 3.41 as the 61.8% retracement from earlier bearish moves.

Backtest Hypothesis

To test the robustness of short-term bearish signals, a backtesting strategy could be designed using the Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern, which appeared prominently at 3.35 and 3.20. The pattern is known to indicate potential trend reversals, and in this case, it coincided with sharp downward price action. To clarify:

1. Ticker: The correct ticker to test is RPLUSDC, not HOLD.P.
2. Position Side: The signal should be treated as an entry trigger for a short position that is held for 14 calendar days from the signal date.

Using this setup, the backtest would identify all occurrences of the Bearish Engulfing pattern in the RPLUSDC data from 2022-01-01 to today. Each signal would open a short position with a stop-loss placed at the high of the engulfing candle and a profit target at the prior swing low or 38.2% Fibonacci level. This approach allows for the assessment of risk-reward and win-rate over a long-term time frame.