Rocket Pool/USDC Market Overview

• Price declined sharply from 6.92 to 6.37, forming a bearish trend.
• Volatility spiked in early trading before consolidating near support.
• RSI entered oversold territory, suggesting possible near-term bounce.
• Bollinger Bands contracted in late session, hinting at potential breakout.
• Volume surged during the decline, confirming bearish conviction.

Rocket Pool/USDC (RPLUSDC) opened at 6.74 on 2025-09-18 at 12:00 ET and closed at 6.37 on 2025-09-19 at the same time. The 24-hour range extended to 6.92 (high) and 6.33 (low). Total volume traded was 14,178.89, with a notional turnover of $90,404.91, indicating high liquidity during the sell-off. The pair has shown a strong bearish bias, with significant price compression and high-volume bearish moves.

Structure & Formations

Price action formed several bearish patterns, including a large bearish engulfing candle during the 23:30–00:00 ET window, followed by a key breakdown below 6.80. A critical support level emerged near 6.40–6.50, where price consolidated for much of the session. A doji at 6.54 during 08:00–08:15 ET signaled indecision, but this failed to reverse the trend. Key resistance levels remain at 6.77–6.80 and 6.92, with support at 6.40–6.50 and potentially 6.33.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20- and 50-period moving averages are both bearish, with price well below both lines. On the daily chart, the 50-, 100-, and 200-period MA are aligned bearishly, reinforcing the downtrend. The MA crossover suggests continuation of the bearish bias unless price reclaims key levels above 6.77–6.80.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned negative and remained below the signal line, confirming bearish momentum. RSI has entered oversold territory (below 30), raising the possibility of a short-term bounce. However, the depth of the sell-off and volume suggest that a sustained reversal is unlikely unless a strong bullish catalyst emerges.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a period of contraction in late afternoon and evening trading (6:00–9:00 ET), indicating decreasing volatility. Price closed near the lower band, signaling exhaustion of the bearish move and a possible bounce. A breakout above 6.77 may trigger an expansion phase, while a retest of 6.33 could reinforce bearish sentiment.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during the sell-off phase (23:00–03:00 ET), confirming the bearish move. Turnover also surged during this time, aligning with price action. Divergence appears near 6.54, where volume declined despite price movement. This suggests diminishing conviction during the consolidation phase and may signal a potential reversal attempt, though bearish sentiment remains dominant.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 6.92–6.33 swing, key levels are at 6.71 (61.8%) and 6.82 (38.2%). Price failed to find support at both levels and broke below 6.77, reinforcing the bearish outlook. A potential test of 6.33 may set up a 50% retracement at 6.63, but this remains speculative unless volume confirms a reversal.

Backtest Hypothesis

The described backtest strategy involves a Fibonacci-based mean reversion approach, entering long positions when price retests the 61.8% level with rising volume and bullish candlestick confirmation. Short positions are triggered on bearish engulfing patterns below key support levels. This aligns with today’s structure, where price failed to hold 6.77 and a bearish engulfing candle confirmed breakdown. The strategy would likely have captured the 6.92–6.33 move with early shorts on the 23:30–00:00 ET candle.