Rocket Lab Soars 10.7% on Record Launch Success and $816M U.S. Space Force Contract

Summary
• Rocket Lab (RKLB) surges 10.7% to $78.11, hitting its 52-week high of $78.44
• 21st Electron rocket launch and $816M U.S. Space Force satellite contract drive momentum
• Turnover jumps 7% as bulls capitalize on small-satellite market optimism

Rocket Lab’s stock has erupted on Monday, fueled by a historic 21st Electron rocket launch and a landmark $816M contract with the U.S. Space Force. The surge has pushed RKLB to its 52-week peak, with intraday volume surging 7% as investors bet on the company’s dominance in the small-satellite launch sector. The move underscores growing demand for rapid, reliable orbital access amid a $3.5B global missile-tracking satellite push by the Space Development Agency.

Record 21st Electron Launch and $816M U.S. Space Force Contract Drive Rocket Lab's Surge
Rocket Lab’s 10.7% rally stems from two catalysts: a flawless 21st Electron rocket launch in 2025, achieving a 100% success rate, and a $816M contract to build 18 missile-defense satellites for the U.S. Space Force. The QPS-SAR-15 satellite deployment for Japan’s iQPS expands Rocket Lab’s footprint in the synthetic aperture radar market, while the Space Force deal marks its largest contract ever. Analysts highlight the company’s 79th Electron flight as a validation of its reliability, with seven satellites launched for iQPS since 2023 and five more missions scheduled in 2026. The streak reinforces Rocket Lab’s position in the $12B small-satellite launch market, where demand for rapid, cost-effective access to orbit is accelerating.

Aerospace & Defense Sector Gains Momentum as Rocket Lab Outpaces Peer Lockheed Martin
The Aerospace & Defense sector, led by Lockheed Martin (LMT) up 1.75%, has seen Rocket Lab outperform with a 10.7% gain. While LMT’s modest rise reflects broader defense spending optimism, Rocket Lab’s surge is driven by niche market capture in small-satellite launches. The sector’s 3.5B-dollar SDA Tracking Layer satellite awards and U.S. military reorganization plans highlight long-term tailwinds. Rocket Lab’s focus on rapid, low-cost Electron missions positions it to benefit from the $3.5B low-Earth orbit constellation boom, contrasting with LMT’s traditional defense contracts.

Options Playbook: High-Leverage Calls and Gamma-Driven Bets as RKLB Hits 52-Week High
• RSI: 80.1 (overbought), MACD: 3.24 (bullish), 200D MA: $39.47 (far below)
• Bollinger Bands: $33.20–$68.57 (price near upper band), 30D MA: $49.41 (below)

Rocket Lab’s technicals scream short-term bullish momentum. The RSI at 80.1 signals overbought conditions, while the MACD histogram of 2.02 and 3.24 signal strong upward momentum. The stock trades near its 52-week high of $78.44, with Bollinger Bands showing extreme volatility. For aggressive bulls, the RKLB20251226C75 call and RKLB20251226C77 call offer high leverage and gamma-driven exposure. The 200D MA at $39.47 is a distant support, suggesting a continuation of the rally.

RKLB20251226C75 (Call, $75 strike, 12/26 expiry):
• IV: 83.46% (high), Leverage: 17.76%, Delta: 0.648 (moderate), Theta: -0.662 (high decay), Gamma: 0.049 (sensitive to price moves), Turnover: $3.31M
• High implied volatility and leverage amplify gains if RKLB breaks $75. A 5% upside to $82.01 yields a $7.01 payoff per contract.

RKLB20251226C77 (Call, $77 strike, 12/26 expiry):
• IV: 83.62% (high), Leverage: 23.82%, Delta: 0.544 (moderate), Theta: -0.624 (high decay), Gamma: 0.052 (high sensitivity), Turnover: $1.43M
• Strong gamma and leverage make this ideal for a continuation of the rally. A 5% move to $82.01 delivers a $5.01 payoff per contract.

Aggressive bulls should consider RKLB20251226C77 into a break above $77.50, while hedgers may use RKLB20251226P76 for downside protection.

Backtest Rocket Lab Stock Performance
The backtest of Rockwell Automation (RKLB) following a 11% intraday increase from 2022 to now shows favorable performance metrics. The 3-Day win rate is 51.92%, the 10-Day win rate is 55.76%, and the 30-Day win rate is 63.84%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short term. The maximum return during the backtest was 20.51%, which occurred on day 59, suggesting that RKLB can deliver significant gains even after the initial surge.

Rocket Lab's Momentum Suggests Strategic Entry for Bulls; Watch $78.44 52-Week High for Confirmation
Rocket Lab’s 10.7% surge is a testament to its market-leading position in small-satellite launches and defense contracts. The stock’s proximity to its 52-week high of $78.44 and strong technicals suggest a continuation of the rally, particularly if the $816M Space Force contract drives further optimism. Sector leader Lockheed Martin (LMT) gained 1.75%, but Rocket Lab’s niche focus and high-gamma options like RKLB20251226C77 offer superior leverage for bulls. Investors should monitor the $78.44 level for a breakout confirmation and consider the RKLB20251226C75 call for a high-leverage, high-gamma play on the next leg up.