Rocket Lab Soars 8.2% on $805M Contract Win: Is This the Start of a New Bull Run?

Summary
• Rocket Lab (RKLB) surges 8.22% intraday, hitting a 52-week high of $77.09
• $805M U.S. Space Development Agency contract sparks analyst upgrades and valuation optimism
• Options frenzy: 6425 contracts traded for the $75 call expiring 12/26, signaling aggressive bullish bets

Rocket Lab’s meteoric 8.2% rally on 2025-12-22 has ignited a firestorm of speculation. The stock’s surge to $76.32—its highest since the 52-week high of $77.09—follows a landmark $805 million satellite contract win. With options volume spiking and technical indicators flashing overbought signals, the question is no longer if RKLB will continue its ascent, but how far this momentum can carry.

Landmark $805M Contract Ignites Rocket Lab’s Bull Run
Rocket Lab’s 8.2% intraday surge is directly tied to its $805 million contract to build 18 missile warning satellites for the U.S. Space Development Agency. This deal, announced alongside a string of recent wins including record Electron launch cadence and JAXA missions, has redefined investor sentiment. Analysts at Simply Wall St now value the stock at $97.83, implying a 39% upside from the previous close of $70.52. The contract not only validates Rocket Lab’s defense-focused space strategy but also accelerates its path to positive net margins—a critical threshold for transitioning from cash-burning to self-funding growth. With Neutron rocket operations now the key catalyst, the market is pricing in a re-rating of the company’s long-term potential.

Aerospace & Defense Sector Rally: Lockheed Martin Gains 1.16% as RKLB Soars
Rocket Lab’s 8.2% rally outpaces the broader aerospace & defense sector, where Lockheed Martin (LMT) rose 1.16% on news of Germany’s $60 billion defense splurge. While defense stocks broadly benefited from geopolitical tensions and AI-driven innovation, RKLB’s move is uniquely tied to its contract win and speculative momentum. The sector’s 30-day average turnover rate of 2.59% (RKLB’s turnover rate is 2.59%) suggests liquidity is supporting the move, but RKLB’s 29.4x book value—versus the sector’s 3.7x—highlights its premium valuation. Investors are betting Rocket Lab’s specialized satellite capabilities will outperform traditional defense contractors in the AI and space security boom.

Options Playbook: Leverage RKLB’s Momentum with Gamma-Driven Calls
• MACD: 3.24 (above signal line 1.22), RSI: 80.10 (overbought), Bollinger Bands: Price at 68.57 (upper band), 200D MA: 39.47 (far below)
• Key Levels: 72.75 (intraday low), 77.09 (52W high), 76.32 (current price)
• Short-Term Outlook: Overbought RSI and bullish Kline pattern suggest continuation, but watch for a pullback to 72.75 support

Top Options Picks:
• RKLB20251226C75 (Call, $75 strike, 12/26 expiry):
- IV: 83.07% (moderate), Leverage Ratio: 22.31% (high), Delta: 0.568 (moderate), Theta: -0.620 (high decay), Gamma: 0.053 (high sensitivity), Turnover: 2.23M (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% Upside: $80.13 → $5.13/share (max(0, 80.13 - 75))
- Why: High gamma and leverage amplify gains if the stock holds above $75, while high turnover ensures liquidity.
• RKLB20251226C74 (Call, $74 strike, 12/26 expiry):
- IV: 91.72% (high), Leverage Ratio: 17.85% (moderate), Delta: 0.614 (moderate), Theta: -0.664 (high decay), Gamma: 0.047 (high sensitivity), Turnover: 709K (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% Upside: $80.13 → $6.13/share (max(0, 80.13 - 74))
- Why: Lower strike price offers higher intrinsic value, ideal for a conservative bullish bet with strong gamma to capitalize on volatility.

Action: Aggressive bulls should prioritize RKLB20251226C75 for its high leverage and gamma, while RKLB20251226C74 provides a safer entry. Both contracts benefit from Rocket Lab’s proximity to its 52-week high and the sector’s AI-driven momentum.

Backtest Rocket Lab Stock Performance
The backtest of RKLB's performance following an 8% intraday increase from 2022 to the present reveals a significant strategy return of 433.53%, vastly outperforming the benchmark return of 48.07%. The strategy achieved an excess return of 385.46% and a CAGR of 53.47%, indicating substantial growth over the period. Notably, the Sharpe ratio of 0.65 suggests a good risk-adjusted return, and the maximum drawdown being 0% implies the strategy avoided any losses during the backtest period.

RKLB’s $77.09 52-Week High is a Critical Threshold—Act Now
Rocket Lab’s 8.2% surge is fueled by a perfect storm of contract wins, analyst upgrades, and speculative options buying. While the RSI at 80.10 signals overbought conditions, the stock’s bullish Kline pattern and high gamma options suggest momentum is intact. Investors should monitor the 72.75 support level and the 77.09 52-week high as key inflection points. With sector leader Lockheed Martin (LMT) up 1.16%, the aerospace & defense space remains in focus. Act now: Buy RKLB20251226C75 if the stock holds above $75, or short-term traders can scalp the 77.09 level with tight stops. This is a high-velocity trade—don’t let it slip into 2026.