Rocket Lab Soars 5% on Record Launches and Neutron Progress – Is This the Start of a New Bull Run?

Summary
• Rocket Lab (RKLB) surges 5.01% intraday to $56.11, hitting a 52-week high of $73.97
• 20th Electron launch in 2025 confirmed, with Neutron rocket’s ‘Hungry Hippo’ fairing nearing operational readiness
• Q3 revenue jumps 48% to $50.3M, backlog expands to $1.1B as commercial contracts dominate

Rocket Lab’s stock is trading at its highest level since early 2025, driven by a record-breaking launch cadence and technical advancements in its Neutron rocket program. With two launches scheduled within 48 hours and a $1B liquidity buffer, the company is accelerating its transition from a niche launch provider to a full-spectrum space infrastructure leader. The intraday high of $58.15 and low of $52.25 reflect intense short-term volatility as investors weigh near-term execution risks against long-term growth potential.

Record Launch Cadence and Neutron Breakthrough Ignite Investor Optimism
Rocket Lab’s 5.01% intraday surge stems from a confluence of operational milestones and strategic progress. The company confirmed its 20th Electron launch of 2025, including two missions for Japan’s JAXA and South Korea’s KAIST, showcasing its ability to maintain a 60% year-over-year launch cadence. Simultaneously, the Neutron rocket’s ‘Hungry Hippo’ fairing completed qualification testing, enabling reusable payload deployment—a first in the industry. These developments, coupled with Q3 revenue growth and a $1B liquidity buffer, have reignited investor confidence in Rocket Lab’s ability to scale beyond small-satellite launches into the medium-lift market, directly challenging SpaceX’s Falcon 9.

Aerospace Sector Gains Momentum as Rocket Lab Outperforms Peers
The broader aerospace sector is seeing renewed interest, with SpaceX’s 560th Falcon 9 launch and Blue Origin’s New Glenn test flight capturing headlines. However, Rocket Lab’s 5.01% intraday gain outpaces its peers, including Lockheed Martin (LMT)’s -0.357% decline. This divergence reflects Rocket Lab’s unique positioning in the small-launch market, where its 100% mission success rate and Neutron rocket’s cost-reduction potential create a compelling narrative. While LMT and Boeing (BA) face defense budget uncertainties, Rocket Lab’s commercial backlog and government partnerships (e.g., JAXA, CSA) offer a more diversified growth path.

Options Playbook: Capitalizing on RKLB's Bullish Momentum
• 200-day average: 37.87 (below current price) • RSI: 71.79 (overbought) • MACD: -1.13 (bullish crossover) • Bollinger Bands: Price at 56.11 (above upper band of 53.47) • Gamma: 0.045 (high sensitivity to price swings)

Rocket Lab’s technicals suggest a continuation of its bullish momentum, with key support at $45.05 (20-day MA) and resistance at $58.15 (intraday high). The RSI’s overbought level and MACD’s positive histogram indicate short-term strength, though traders should monitor the 52-week high of $73.97 as a critical psychological barrier. With the sector leader Lockheed Martin (LMT) down 0.357%, Rocket Lab’s outperformance highlights its speculative appeal.

Top Option 1: RKLB20251219C55
• Type: Call • Strike: $55 • Expiration: 2025-12-19 • IV: 92.14% (high volatility) • Leverage: 13.14% • Delta: 0.609 • Theta: -0.292 • Gamma: 0.044 • Turnover: 1.98M
• IV: High volatility suggests strong market expectations • Leverage: Amplifies gains if price breaks above $55 • Delta: Moderate sensitivity to price changes • Theta: High time decay, ideal for short-term plays • Gamma: High sensitivity to price swings
• This call option offers a balance of leverage and liquidity, ideal for capitalizing on Rocket Lab’s near-term rally. A 5% upside from $56.11 to $58.91 would yield a 15% return on the $55 strike.

Top Option 2: RKLB20251219C56
• Type: Call • Strike: $56 • Expiration: 2025-12-19 • IV: 91.19% • Leverage: 15.10% • Delta: 0.563 • Theta: -0.286 • Gamma: 0.046 • Turnover: 146K
• IV: High volatility aligns with market optimism • Leverage: Strong amplification potential • Delta: Sensitive to price movement • Theta: High time decay, suitable for aggressive plays • Gamma: High sensitivity to price swings
• This contract provides a tighter strike price closer to the current level, offering higher leverage (15.10%) and gamma (0.046) for a 5% upside scenario. A move to $58.91 would generate a 23% return on the $56 strike.

Action Insight: Aggressive bulls should prioritize RKLB20251219C56 for a short-term breakout play, while RKLB20251219C55 offers a safer entry with higher liquidity. Both contracts benefit from Rocket Lab’s momentum and Neutron-related catalysts.

Backtest Rocket Lab Stock Performance
The backtest of RKLB's performance following a 5% intraday increase from 2022 to the present shows poor results. The strategy's CAGR is -0.58%, with a total return of -2.25% and an excess return of -50.38%, significantly underperforming the benchmark return of 48.13%. Additionally, the strategy has a high volatility of 25.18% and a maximum drawdown of 0.00%, indicating significant risk and substantial losses during the period.

RKLB at a Pivotal Moment – Position for a 2026 Launch-Driven Rally
Rocket Lab’s 5.01% surge underscores its transition from a niche launch provider to a space infrastructure leader, with Neutron rocket progress and commercial backlog growth as key drivers. While the RSI’s overbought level and MACD’s positive divergence suggest continued short-term strength, traders must balance optimism with caution around the 52-week high of $73.97. The sector leader Lockheed Martin (LMT)’s -0.357% decline highlights Rocket Lab’s outperformance, but investors should monitor the 200-day MA at $37.87 as a critical support level. Act now: Buy RKLB20251219C56 for a 5% upside target or RKLB20251219C55 for a safer, high-liquidity entry. Watch for a breakdown below $45.05 to trigger a reevaluation of the bullish thesis.