Rocket Lab Soars 5.55% on Record Launch and Analyst Hype: Is This the Start of a Bullish Run?

Summary
• Rocket Lab (RKLB) surges 5.55% to $56.96, hitting a 52-week high of $58.83
• Bank of America raises price target to $60, citing 'winner-take-most' space industry dynamics
• U.S. Space Force mission 'Don't Be Such A Square' launches ahead of schedule, boosting sentiment
• Options frenzy: 20 contracts trade with implied volatility above 75%, signaling high conviction

Rocket Lab’s stock is racing toward a 52-week high on the heels of a record-breaking launch for the U.S. Space Force and a bullish upgrade from Bank of America. With the stock trading 5.55% higher at $56.96, the aerospace darling is capitalizing on a confluence of strategic momentum and speculative fervor. The day’s $56.08–$58.83 range reflects a sharp reversal from recent bearish patterns, as investors bet on the company’s expanding role in national defense and space infrastructure.

Record Launch and Analyst Hype Fuel Rocket Lab’s Surge
Rocket Lab’s 5.55% intraday rally is directly tied to two catalysts: a successful, accelerated launch for the U.S. Space Force and a Bank of America upgrade. The STP-S30 mission, launched five months ahead of schedule, underscores Rocket Lab’s reliability in national security contracts, with the company now having executed 20 launches in 2025. Concurrently, BofA’s $60 price target (up from $50) highlights the firm’s belief in a 'winner-take-most' consolidation phase in the space industry. The stock’s surge aligns with its 52-week high of $73.97, as investors price in the potential for Neutron rocket test launches and $1.1 billion in backlog.

Aerospace & Defense Sector Mixed as Rocket Lab Outpaces Peers
While Rocket Lab’s stock soars, the broader Aerospace & Defense sector shows mixed momentum. Sector leader Lockheed Martin (LMT) trades down 0.13%, reflecting caution in defense stocks. Peers like AeroVironment (AVAV) and Kratos (KTOS) are up 2.22% and 1.83%, respectively, but Rocket Lab’s 7.30% gain dwarfs these moves. The divergence highlights Rocket Lab’s unique positioning in small satellite and rapid-response launch markets, where its Electron rocket’s 2025 launch record and Neutron development create a distinct growth narrative.

Options and ETFs to Capitalize on Rocket Lab’s Volatility
• MACD: 1.75 (above signal line 0.36), RSI: 66.94 (neutral), Bollinger Bands: $33.38–$63.65 (current price near upper band)
• 200-day MA: $39.01 (far below), 30-day MA: $48.60 (below current price)

Rocket Lab’s technicals suggest a continuation of its bullish momentum, with the stock trading near its 52-week high and MACD signaling strong upward momentum. Key resistance lies at $58.83 (intraday high), with a breakdown below $48.52 (middle Bollinger Band) signaling a potential reversal. The RSI at 66.94 indicates no immediate overbought conditions, supporting a short-to-midterm bullish case.

Top Options Picks:
• RKLB20251226C58 (Call, $58 strike, 12/26 expiry):
- IV: 82.10% (high volatility)
- Leverage Ratio: 19.93% (moderate)
- Delta: 0.518 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.2899 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0535 (high sensitivity to price moves)
- Turnover: 48,407 (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% Upside: $1.45/share (max(0, 59.75 - 58))
- Why: High gamma and moderate delta make this ideal for a continuation of the rally, with liquidity ensuring easy entry/exit.
• RKLB20251226C59 (Call, $59 strike, 12/26 expiry):
- IV: 76.81% (moderate)
- Leverage Ratio: 25.46% (high)
- Delta: 0.459 (moderate)
- Theta: -0.2658 (rapid decay)
- Gamma: 0.0569 (high)
- Turnover: 9,087 (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% Upside: $0.75/share (max(0, 59.75 - 59))
- Why: High leverage and gamma position this for a breakout above $59, with IV suggesting strong conviction in the move.

Action: Aggressive bulls should target RKLB20251226C58 into a close above $58.83. Conservative traders may use RKLB20251226C59 as a leveraged play if the stock holds above $56.08.

Backtest Rocket Lab Stock Performance
The backtest of RKLB's performance following a 6% intraday increase from 2022 to the present shows a significant strategy return of 433.53%, vastly outperforming the benchmark return of 48.07%. The strategy achieved an excess return of 385.46% and a CAGR of 53.47%, indicating substantial growth during the period. Notably, the Sharpe ratio of 0.65 suggests a good risk-adjusted return, and the maximum drawdown being 0% implies the strategy avoided any losses during the backtest period.

Rocket Lab’s Rally: A Short-Term Play on Momentum and Analyst Optimism
Rocket Lab’s 5.55% surge is a short-term win driven by a record launch and analyst upgrades, but sustainability hinges on maintaining its 52-week high of $58.83. The stock’s technicals and options activity suggest a continuation of the bullish trend, with key resistance at $58.83 and support at $48.52. Investors should monitor the Neutron rocket’s test launch in early 2026 and the $1.1 billion backlog for long-term catalysts. Meanwhile, sector leader Lockheed Martin (LMT) trades down 0.13%, underscoring Rocket Lab’s unique momentum. For now, the call options RKLB20251226C58 and RKLB20251226C59 offer high-gamma, high-leverage plays on a breakout above $59.