Rocket Lab Soars 16.6% on Record Launch Success and Sector-Wide Optimism

Summary
• Rocket Lab (RKLB) surges 16.6% to $69.865, marking its best session in eight months
• Secures $805M U.S. missile-tracking satellite contract, reinforcing operational credibility
• Trump’s 'America First' space policy and SpaceX IPO buzz fuel sector-wide rally

Rocket Lab’s stock has erupted on Friday, driven by a landmark government contract win, flawless mission execution, and a surge in sector optimism. The stock’s 16.6% rally—its most aggressive move since early 2025—reflects a confluence of technical support, operational milestones, and macro-level tailwinds. With the stock trading near its 52-week high of $73.97, investors are betting on Rocket Lab’s accelerating momentum ahead of its Neutron rocket debut in 2026.

Government Contract and Operational Excellence Drive Rocket Lab's Surge
Rocket Lab’s 16.6% intraday surge is anchored by two catalysts: a $805 million U.S. missile-tracking satellite contract and flawless execution of high-profile missions. The U.S. Space Development Agency’s award for 18 tracking satellites under the Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture (PDSA) program validates Rocket Lab’s reliability in national security contracts. Simultaneously, the company’s STP-S30 mission for the U.S. Space Force was completed five months ahead of schedule, showcasing operational agility. These wins, combined with renewed sector optimism from Trump’s executive order on space policy and SpaceX IPO speculation, have repositioned Rocket Lab as a core beneficiary of the 'America First' space industrial base.

Aerospace & Defense Sector Rally on Trump's 'America First' Space Policy
The Aerospace & Defense sector has rallied in tandem with Rocket Lab’s surge, driven by Trump’s sweeping executive order prioritizing lunar exploration, missile defense, and commercial space infrastructure. Stocks like Viasat, AST SpaceMobile, and Virgin Galactic have mirrored RKLB’s momentum, reflecting broad-based enthusiasm for U.S. space leadership. Rocket Lab’s 16.6% move outperforms sector peers, underscoring its unique positioning as a small-launch provider with expanding capabilities into medium-lift and national security markets.

Options Playbook: High-Leverage Calls and Strategic Puts for Rocket Lab's Volatile Move
• 200-day average: 39.21 (below current price) • RSI: 71.55 (overbought) • MACD: 2.12 (bullish divergence) • Bollinger Bands: $65.10 (upper), $33.56 (lower) • Gamma: 0.047 (high sensitivity to price swings)

Rocket Lab’s technicals suggest a continuation of its bullish momentum, with key resistance at $73.97 (52-week high) and support at $65 (Bollinger midline). The stock’s 71.55 RSI and 2.12 MACD signal strong near-term momentum, while its -192.65 P/E ratio highlights speculative positioning. For leveraged exposure, boldRKLB20251226C70 and boldRKLB20251226P69 stand out:

• RKLB20251226C70 (Call, $70 strike, 12/26 expiry):
- IV: 82.42% (high volatility)
- Leverage: 22.44% (aggressive exposure)
- Delta: 0.496 (moderate directional sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.372 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.047 (high sensitivity to price swings)
- Turnover: $1.33M (liquid)
- Payoff (5% upside): $4.47/share (max gain if RKLB hits $73.35)
- Why it works: High leverage and gamma make this ideal for a short-term breakout above $70.

• RKLB20251226P69 (Put, $69 strike, 12/26 expiry):
- IV: 76.93% (moderate volatility)
- Leverage: 23.50% (balanced risk/reward)
- Delta: -0.458 (moderate bearish bias)
- Theta: -0.017 (slow time decay)
- Gamma: 0.050 (high sensitivity to price swings)
- Turnover: $201K (liquid)
- Payoff (5% upside): $0.53/share (limited downside if RKLB consolidates near $69)
- Why it works: Acts as a hedge against volatility while retaining upside potential.

Aggressive bulls should target RKLB20251226C70 into a break above $70.

Backtest Rocket Lab Stock Performance
The backtest of Rockwell Automation (RKLB) following a 17% intraday surge from 2022 to the present indicates positive short-to-medium-term performance, with varying win rates and returns across different time frames:1. Frequency and Win Rates: The event occurred 492 times, with a 3-day win rate of 51.83%, a 10-day win rate of 55.69%, and a 30-day win rate of 63.82%. This suggests a higher probability of a positive outcome in the short to medium term after the intraday surge.2. Returns: The average 3-day return following the event was 1.17%, with a maximum return of 20.21% on day 59. The 10-day return was higher at 3.84%, with a maximum return of 22.12% on day 77. The 30-day return was 11.22%, with a maximum return of 24.56% on day 93. These returns indicate that while the gains are not consistently high, they can be substantial, especially if held for longer periods.In conclusion, RKLB has shown favorable performance in the short to medium term following a 17% intraday surge. Investors may consider these findings when assessing the potential for holding or trading in RKLB, keeping in mind that past performance is not always indicative of future results.

Rocket Lab's Momentum Unlikely to Subside—Position for Neutron's Launch Catalyst
Rocket Lab’s 16.6% surge is underpinned by a perfect storm of operational execution, sector-wide optimism, and macro-level tailwinds. With the Neutron rocket’s maiden flight in H1 2026, the company is poised to expand into medium-lift contracts, directly competing with Falcon 9. Investors should monitor the $70 psychological level and the 52-week high of $73.97 as critical inflection points. Meanwhile, sector leader boldLockheed Martin (LMT), up 0.74%, signals sustained demand for defense tech. Position now with RKLB20251226C70 for a breakout play or RKLB20251226P69 as a volatility hedge.