Rocket Lab Shares Surge 9.05% on $1.4 Billion Volume 101st in Market Activity Amid Mars Setback and Defense Contract Optimism

Market Snapshot

Rocket Lab (RKLB) surged 9.05% on February 6, 2026, closing the day with a trading volume of $1.4 billion, ranking 101st in market activity. Despite the significant gain, the stock’s performance was influenced by mixed technical indicators, including a 138.5% annual increase but trading below its 20-day and 50-day simple moving averages. The rise followed a week of volatility, with earlier reports showing a 6.58% decline linked to broader market weakness, as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 fell by 1.35% and 1.61%, respectively.

Key Drivers

Mars Sample Return Setback and Neutron Rocket Delays

Congress’s decision to deny funding for NASA’s 2031 Mars Sample Return mission eliminated a potential $4 billion contract opportunity for Rocket Lab, significantly undermining its long-term growth narrative. The company had positioned itself as a key contender for the high-margin deep-space mission, and the cancellation has raised concerns about its ability to secure large-scale government contracts. Compounding this issue, a recent test failure in Rocket Lab’s Neutron rocket program—a critical project for future revenue—further dented investor confidence. A ruptured Stage 1 tank during qualification testing, while not causing structural damage, may delay the rocket’s first launch from Q2 2026. Analysts at TD Cowen highlighted that a second launch in 2026 would become unlikely if the delay persists, adding uncertainty to the company’s product roadmap.

Defense Contracts and Analyst Optimism

Amid these challenges, Rocket Lab secured a major $816 million contract with the U.S. Space Development Agency (SDA) to design and manufacture 18 missile-tracking satellites. This contract, the largest in the company’s history, has bolstered its defense segment and drawn positive analyst reactions. Morgan Stanley upgraded Rocket Lab from “Equal Weight” to “Overweight” and raised its price target to $105, citing the company’s execution capabilities in the medium-lift launch market. Goldman Sachs also increased its price target to $69 from $47, maintaining a “Neutral” rating. The defense contract provides a clear revenue stream and diversifies Rocket Lab’s business beyond speculative deep-space projects. Additionally, the company’s Electron rocket has demonstrated strong operational performance, with 81 successful launches and increasing launch cadence, which analysts believe will support revenue growth and margin expansion.

Market Correlation and Technical Indicators

Rocket Lab’s stock remains highly correlated with broader market trends, as evidenced by its sharp decline earlier in the week alongside the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100. The stock’s beta of 2.18 indicates it is more than twice as volatile as the market, making it susceptible to macroeconomic shifts and sector-specific pressures. Technical indicators suggest mixed momentum: while the stock has gained 138.5% over the past year, it currently trades below its 20-day and 50-day moving averages, with key support at $67.00. This suggests potential for further downside if market conditions deteriorate or if Rocket Lab fails to meet expectations in its upcoming earnings report.

Earnings Outlook and Analyst Ratings

Investors are closely watching Rocket Lab’s February 26 earnings report, with analysts expecting a loss of 9 cents per share and revenue of $178.07 million—a 34% year-over-year increase. The earnings report will provide clarity on the company’s ability to offset the Mars mission loss through its defense and commercial segments. Analysts maintain a generally positive outlook, with 11 Wall Street analysts averaging a $73.11 price target for the next 12 months. However, the subjective nature of price targets and recent technical headwinds suggest that fundamentals—such as the success of the Neutron rocket and execution on defense contracts—will be critical for sustained momentum.

Capital Rotation and SpaceX IPO Speculation

Renewed speculation about a potential SpaceX IPO has created nervousness in the space sector, with investors rotating capital out of smaller players like Rocket Lab. Analysts note that SpaceX’s estimated $1.5 trillion valuation could draw attention and funding away from public space stocks, exacerbating volatility for companies like Rocket Lab. While the company’s defense contracts and operational execution provide a counterweight, the competitive landscape remains challenging as it prepares to face direct comparisons with SpaceX should the IPO proceed. This dynamic underscores the need for Rocket Lab to demonstrate consistent progress in its Neutron program and capitalize on its defense partnerships to maintain investor confidence.