Rocket Lab (RKLB) Plunges 3.25% to 2025 Low Amid SpaceX Competition, Neutron Delays

Rocket Lab (RKLB) fell 3.25% on Thursday, marking its lowest share price since October 2025, with an intraday decline of 3.43%. The selloff reflects investor caution amid mixed signals from the company’s recent operational and strategic developments.

The stock’s downward pressure stems from intensified competition in the small-satellite launch market, particularly from SpaceX’s aggressive expansion. Analysts highlighted concerns that SpaceX’s cost advantages and reusable rocket technology could erode Rocket Lab’s pricing power and market share. This competitive dynamic weighed on sentiment, even as the company celebrated the opening of Launch Complex 3 in Virginia, a key facility for its Neutron rocket program. The Neutron, designed to compete in the mid-sized launch segment, remains a critical long-term growth driver but has yet to offset near-term uncertainties.

Strategic partnerships have provided some support. Rocket Lab secured a 10-launch agreement with Synspective and a multi-mission deal with Japan’s JAXA, reinforcing its role in global satellite deployment. The company also maintained a 100% mission success rate in 2025, including the “Owl New World” launch in October. However, delays in the Neutron’s development timeline and production bottlenecks introduced volatility, with investors reacting negatively to softened guidance in late September.

Financial strategies further complicated the stock’s trajectory. A new at-the-market equity program to raise up to $750 million raised concerns about shareholder dilution, contributing to a 11.9% intraday drop in October. While the program aims to fund Neutron development and satellite services, it underscored the balance Rocket Lab must strike between growth and capital preservation. Institutional investors have shown mixed signals, with some increasing stakes while others reduced holdings amid valuation debates.

Analysts remain divided. Needham & Company reiterated a “Buy” rating in September, citing a $1 billion backlog and strong demand, while others questioned whether Rocket Lab’s 70% year-to-date gain leaves room for further appreciation. The company’s 780% return over 14 months and robust revenue growth highlight its potential, but near-term risks—such as production delays and competitive pressures—necessitate careful monitoring of upcoming milestones, including the Neutron’s first launch and execution of the Synspective pipeline.