Rocket Lab Rises 4.23% to $49.81 as Technicals Signal Bullish Reversal

Rocket Lab (RKLB) closed at $49.81 on September 22, 2025, marking a 4.23% gain and extending its advance to 5.57% over two consecutive sessions. This upward momentum occurred against a backdrop of significant price volatility observed over the past year, ranging from approximately $7.56 to $55.17. The following technical analysis examines this price action through multiple indicators.
Candlestick Theory
Recent sessions show a potential bullish reversal pattern following the September 16 plunge (-12.57%). The September 22 candle closed near its high ($50.26 vs. close $49.81) after breaching the September 15 high ($49.19), suggesting emerging bullish conviction. Key resistance is evident at $52.08 (September 16 high) and psychological $55, while support converges near $46.80–$47.00 (September 18–19 lows), reinforced by the 50% Fibonacci level. A closing break above $52.08 could signal continuation, whereas failure to hold $47 may invalidate the rebound.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day MA (∼$44) and 100-day MA (∼$40) maintain upward slopes below the 200-day MA (∼$30), confirming a primary bullish trend. The current price trading above all three key MAs demonstrates sustained intermediate-term strength. Recent volatility saw the 50-day MA acting as dynamic support during the September dip ($46.80 low vs. 50-day MA near $44), while the widening gap between shorter and longer-term MAs reflects robust momentum. Confluence near $45–$46 (50-day MA + horizontal support) offers a critical bastion for bulls.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD shows a bullish crossover emerging as the signal line turns upward from oversold territory, corroborating the price rebound. Meanwhile, KDJ’s %K (75) and %D (68) approach overbought zones, signaling near-term exhaustion risk. However, the KDJ "golden cross" (K crossing D upward) on September 19 preceded the current advance, lending credibility to short-term momentum. Divergence is noted: MACD’s improving histogram contrasts with KDJ’s stretched levels, suggesting consolidation may precede further upside.
Bollinger Bands
The bands widened dramatically during the September 16 sell-off (52.08 high to 47.01 low), reflecting elevated volatility. Recent contraction indicates decreasing volatility, often preceding directional resolution. Price currently rides the upper band ($49.81 close vs. upper band ∼$50), hinting at short-term overextension. A close above $50.26 could trigger band expansion and accelerate gains, while rejection may test the 20-day midline ($46.50), aligning with key moving average support.
Volume-Price Relationship
The September 16 decline saw high volume (42.6M shares), confirming distribution. However, subsequent recovery days (September 19–22) registered lower volume (26.9M and 22.9M), raising sustainability concerns. Notably, the September 12 rally (10.14% gain) occurred on 27.9M shares – exceeding recent volume – which may cap upside near $53–$55 without renewed participation. Volume must expand decisively above 30M shares to validate breakouts beyond $52.08.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (61) rebounds from oversold extremes (recent low ∼30 on September 18) but remains below the overbought threshold. This positioning allows room for further upside before caution is warranted (>70). The RSI’s higher low (September 18) versus price’s higher low (September 19) creates bullish divergence, supporting reversal potential. However, failure to breach 70 during this recovery leg signals moderated momentum compared to prior rallies.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci to the July 21–September 16 decline (high $51.58 → low $42.99) reveals critical levels: 38.2% ($46.35), 50% ($47.28), and 61.8% ($48.24). Price reclaimed both 38.2% and 50% during the rebound, with the current close ($49.81) testing the 61.8% resistance. The 78.6% level at $50.52 aligns with the September 16 intraday high ($50.26), creating a technical confluence zone at $50.26–$50.52. Sustained trading above this area may target the 100% extension near $55.17.
Collective indicator confluence at $50.26–$50.52 (Bollinger upper band + Fibonacci 78.6% + swing high) presents a decisive technical threshold. Bullish momentum signals (MACD crossover, RSI divergence) support upside potential, though volume and RSI limitations warrant vigilance. Conversely, breakdown below $46.80 (candlestick support + 50% Fib) would negate the recovery thesis, exposing the 200-day MA near $40. Traders should monitor volume expansion and RSI behavior at key Fibonacci levels to gauge trend sustainability.