Rocket Lab Plummets 7.88%: What’s Behind the Sudden Sell-Off?

Summary
• Rocket Lab (RKLB) trades at $40.18, down 7.88% from its $43.62 close
• Intraday range spans $46.26 high to $40.07 low
• Options volatility surges, with 2025-11-28 put options seeing 71.43% price change

Rocket Lab’s shares have plunged into a sharp intraday selloff, driven by a delayed Neutron rocket launch and mixed sector dynamics. With the stock trading near its 52-week low of $14.71, investors are scrambling to assess the fallout from management’s revised timeline for the reusable rocket. The aerospace sector, meanwhile, remains cautiously optimistic amid broader defense spending increases.

Neutron Rocket Delay Sparks Investor Exodus
Rocket Lab’s 7.88% intraday drop is directly tied to the company’s announcement that its Neutron rocket’s first launch has been delayed from late 2025 to 2026. This delay, aimed at enabling additional testing, has triggered a 16% decline in the past week and a 35% slump over the last month. Despite prior momentum from record Q3 revenue ($155.08M) and a $325M Geost acquisition, the revised timeline has eroded short-term growth optimism. The stock’s current price of $40.18 now trades 32% below its 52-week high of $73.97, reflecting heightened risk aversion.

Aerospace & Defense Sector Gains Momentum Amid RKLB’s Struggles
While Rocket Lab’s shares falter, the broader Aerospace & Defense sector shows resilience. Recent defense spending bills have allocated $400M to the E-7 Wedgetail program and $378M for B-21 Raider facilities, signaling sustained government support. Sector leader Lockheed Martin (LMT) trades down 0.62% intraday, but its 2026 funding outlook remains robust. Rocket Lab’s struggles contrast with peers, as its P/S ratio of 41.2x far exceeds the sector average of 2.9x, highlighting overvaluation concerns.

Bearish Options and Key Technical Levels to Watch
• 200-day MA: $36.73 (below current price)
• RSI: 19.39 (oversold)
• MACD: -4.20 (bearish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: Lower bound at $38.22 (critical support)

Rocket Lab’s technicals paint a bearish picture, with RSI in oversold territory and MACD signaling momentum decay. The stock is testing its lower Bollinger Band at $38.22, a level that could trigger further declines if breached. For options traders, two contracts stand out:

• RKLB20251128P40: Put option with 71.43% price change, 23.35% leverage ratio, and 85.98% implied volatility. High liquidity (turnover: 77,594) and a delta of -0.407 make this ideal for a 5% downside scenario, where payoff would be $0.82 per share.
• RKLB20251128P41.5: Put option with 61.29% price change, 16.35% leverage ratio, and 85.13% implied volatility. High gamma (0.072962) and moderate delta (-0.5159) offer sensitivity to price swings, with a projected $1.52 payoff under a 5% drop.

Aggressive bears should prioritize RKLB20251128P40 for its liquidity and leverage, while RKLB20251128P41.5 offers a higher-risk, higher-reward profile. Both contracts benefit from elevated implied volatility and strong theta decay (-0.034558 and -0.012756, respectively).

Backtest Rocket Lab Stock Performance
Key Findings• Rocket Lab (RKLB) has recorded 57 separate –8 % intraday‐plunge events since 2022 (low ≤ previous close × 0.92).• One‐month performance after those shocks has been positive but mediocre: average +6.7 % vs +10.4 % for simply holding the stock over the same calendar windows, with no day-level results achieving statistical significance at the 95 % confidence level.• Win rate (probability of a positive return) stays near coin-flip, hovering 50–60 %. Momentum fades beyond the second trading week.ImplicationBuying the dip immediately after an 8 % intraday plunge has not provided a clear tactical edge in RKLB over the 2022-2025 sample. The pattern does not beat a passive benchmark and shows no statistically reliable edge.Interactive ResultA detailed interactive event-study dashboard has been prepared; open it to inspect cumulative P&L, distribution of returns, and per-event drill-downs.Open the panel above to explore the full event-study statistics and charts.

RKLB’s Crossroads: Test Support or Rebound?
Rocket Lab’s near-term outlook hinges on whether its $38.22 support level holds and whether the Neutron rocket delay is perceived as temporary. While the stock’s technicals and options activity suggest bearish sentiment, the broader aerospace sector remains buoyed by defense spending. Investors should monitor LMT’s -0.62% move as a barometer for sector sentiment. For RKLB, a break below $38.22 could accelerate the slide toward its 52-week low, while a rebound above $43.62 might rekindle optimism. Act now: Short-term bears target RKLB20251128P40, while bulls watch for a $46.26 retest.