Rocket Companies Soars 5.7% on Merger Approval and Q2 Beat – Is This the Catalyst for a New Bull Run?

Summary
• Rocket Companies (RKT) surges 5.71% intraday to $20.24, breaking above its 52-week high of $21.38
• Mr. Cooper shareholders approve $9.4B all-stock merger, sending both stocks higher
• Q2 revenue of $1.34B beats estimates, with Q3 guidance above Street view

Rocket Companies is riding a wave of momentum fueled by a landmark merger approval and strong Q2 results. The stock’s 5.71% surge to $20.24—a 58% rally from its 52-week low—has positioned it as a focal point in the Mortgage Finance sector. With Mr. Cooper’s $9.4B merger now cleared and Q3 guidance exceeding expectations, investors are weighing whether this is a sustainable breakout or a short-term bounce in a volatile market.

Merger Approval and Q2 Beat Ignite Rocket’s Rally
Rocket’s 5.71% intraday surge is directly tied to two catalysts: Mr. Cooper’s shareholder approval of the $9.4B all-stock merger and Q2 results that exceeded expectations. The merger, which will combine Rocket’s digital mortgage platform with Mr. Cooper’s servicing portfolio, is expected to create a $2.1T servicing business. Rocket’s Q2 revenue of $1.34B (vs. $1.28B consensus) and Q3 guidance of $1.6–1.75B (vs. $1.5B Street view) further reinforced optimism. Analysts highlight the Redfin integration and $1.25B tender offer as additional tailwinds, while Citron’s “$AMZN of mortgages” label and Dan Loeb’s endorsement added retail and institutional momentum.

Mortgage Finance Sector Gains Momentum as RKT Outperforms
The Mortgage Finance sector is rallying on lower mortgage rates and refinancing demand, with Rocket Companies outpacing peers like LendingTree (TREE), which rose 1.59% intraday. Rocket’s aggressive acquisition strategy and digital mortgage platform position it to capitalize on the sector’s improved affordability metrics, while competitors face tighter regulatory scrutiny. The sector’s broader rally reflects optimism about the pending merger’s synergies and the potential for rate cuts following softer-than-expected jobs data.

Options and ETFs to Capitalize on RKT’s Bullish Momentum
• 200-day MA: $13.70 (well below current price)
• RSI: 52.54 (neutral to bullish)
• MACD: 0.568 (bullish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: $16.64–$19.67 (current price above upper band)

Rocket Companies is in a short-term bullish trend, with technical indicators suggesting continued upside potential. Key support levels include the 30-day MA at $17.74 and the 200-day MA at $13.70. The stock’s 11.33% turnover rate and 5.71% intraday gain indicate strong short-term liquidity and momentum. For leveraged exposure, the sector leader LendingTree (TREE) is up 1.59%, but RKT’s options chain offers more direct plays.

Top Options Picks:
• RKT20250912C19.5 (Call, $19.5 strike, 9/12 expiry):
- IV: 73.24% (high volatility)
- Delta: 0.641 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.049 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.171 (high sensitivity to price changes)
- Turnover: 246,225 (liquid)
- Leverage: 16.39% (moderate)
- Payoff (5% upside): $0.61 per contract
- This call option is ideal for capitalizing on a short-term breakout above $19.50, with high gamma amplifying gains if the stock continues upward.

• RKT20250912C20 (Call, $20 strike, 9/12 expiry):
- IV: 75.54% (high volatility)
- Delta: 0.551 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.055 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.175 (high sensitivity to price changes)
- Turnover: 188,321 (liquid)
- Leverage: 20.58% (high)
- Payoff (5% upside): $0.61 per contract
- This contract offers higher leverage (20.58%) and is well-positioned for a continuation of the current rally, with strong liquidity ensuring easy entry/exit.

Aggressive bulls should consider RKT20250912C20 into a break above $20.22, while conservative traders may use RKT20250912C19.5 for a lower-risk entry. Both options benefit from the stock’s proximity to key resistance levels and high gamma, which amplifies returns as the price moves.

Backtest Rocket Companies Stock Performance
I attempted to identify every trading day since 2022 in which Rocket Companies (RKT) logged a ≥ 6 % single-day gain (close-to-close) and then run an event-based back-test on those dates. • Historical price data (2022-01-01 → 2025-09-05) was successfully retrieved and examined. • The next step—feeding the detected event dates into the event-back-test engine—triggered an internal error (the engine couldn’t generate statistics because it found no qualifying events).This typically means that, over the specified period, RKT never closed up by 6 % or more in a single session (or, if it did, the number of occurrences was effectively zero after the data-cleaning step).Options going forward:1. Validate the threshold – We can inspect the underlying daily returns to confirm whether any ≥ 6 % days exist. 2. Adjust the surge definition – For example, test a 4 % daily surge, or define the surge versus the day’s open or intraday high instead of the previous close. 3. Extend or narrow the time window – Include years prior to 2022 or focus on a shorter, more volatile sub-period.Please let me know which path you prefer (or any other refinement you’d like), and I’ll rerun the analysis accordingly.

Break $20.47 for Sustained Momentum – Watch the Sector Leader
Rocket Companies’ 5.71% surge is a mix of strategic optimism and technical strength, but sustainability hinges on breaking above its intraday high of $20.47. The stock’s 52-week high of $21.38 remains a critical psychological barrier, and failure to clear $20.47 could trigger profit-taking. Investors should monitor the 200-day MA at $13.70 as a key support level and watch for a potential pullback to $18.15 (middle Bollinger Band). Meanwhile, the sector leader LendingTree (TREE) is up 1.59%, signaling broader fintech momentum. Aggressive bulls may consider RKT20250912C20 into a break above $20.22, while conservative traders should watch for a retest of $19.63 support to determine next steps.