Rocket Companies RKT Surges 1.05% on Two-Day Rally Amid Key Technical Breakouts

Rocket Companies (RKT) has seen a 0.80% rise over two consecutive trading sessions, with a cumulative gain of 1.05% in the past two days, suggesting short-term bullish momentum. This recent action aligns with a broader context of volatility and key technical inflection points observed in the historical data. Below is a structured analysis of RKT’s price dynamics using multiple technical frameworks.

Candlestick Theory

The candlestick pattern reveals a mix of bullish and bearish signals. Key support levels are evident around $16.20–$16.30, where the price has historically found buying interest after declines, while resistance clusters form near $17.00–$17.10. Recent bullish patterns include higher highs and higher lows, with a potential Bullish Engulfing formation on October 7, 2025, as the price closed above the prior day’s range. However, bearish divergence is noted in late September, where a Shooting Star candle on September 23, 2025, signaled a potential reversal after a sharp rally. The confluence of support/resistance levels and candlestick patterns suggests that RKT is testing critical psychological thresholds, with a possible breakout or breakdown anticipated in the near term.

Moving Average Theory

The 50-day moving average (MA) has oscillated between $14.50 and $16.50 over the past year, currently intersecting with the 200-day MA, which resides around $15.50. This “MA crossover” suggests a neutral-to-bullish bias for the short term, as the 50-day MA has recently crossed above the 200-day MA. The 100-day MA acts as a dynamic support line, currently at $16.00. A break above $16.50 could confirm a bullish trend, while a retest of the 100-day MA may trigger consolidation. Divergence between the 50-day and 200-day MAs is minimal, indicating alignment in trend direction.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD histogram has shown positive divergence in late September and early October, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line on October 3, 2025, forming a Bullish Golden Cross. This aligns with the RSI reading of 55–60 during this period, indicating moderate momentum. Conversely, the KDJ indicator has entered overbought territory (K > D, K > 80) on October 1, 2025, suggesting a potential pullback. A Death Cross in the KDJ indicator on September 23, 2025, however, highlights bearish caution. The confluence of MACD bullish signals and KDJ overbought conditions creates a mixed outlook, with a probabilistic tilt toward a short-term correction before resuming the uptrend.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have exhibited significant contraction in late September, narrowing to a 5% range between $19.00 and $19.50. This “calm before the storm” pattern suggests impending volatility. The price has tested the upper band multiple times, most recently on October 1, 2025, indicating overbought conditions. A break below the lower band could trigger a 10% retracement, targeting $15.00–$15.50. The current price of $16.39 sits near the mid-band, suggesting a neutral position with potential for either expansion or consolidation.

Volume-Price Relationship

Trading volume has surged during key price moves, such as the October 3, 2025, rally, where volume spiked to $347.8 million, validating the bullish breakout. Conversely, volume has declined during pullbacks, such as the September 23–25 dip, where volume fell to $455.5 million despite a 2.76% drop. This inverse correlation between volume and price during declines raises questions about the sustainability of the current uptrend, as weak volume during corrections may indicate lack of conviction among sellers.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI has oscillated between 30 and 70, with recent overbought readings (RSI > 70) on October 1, 2025, and October 3, 2025, suggesting potential exhaustion in the bullish momentum. A retest of the 50-level is anticipated, with a breakdown below 40 likely to confirm a bearish shift. The RSI’s alignment with MACD divergence reinforces the likelihood of a short-term correction, though the lack of sustained oversold readings (<30) implies a strong base for a rebound.

Fibonacci Retracement

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the key high of $21.14 (September 11, 2025) and low of $11.60 (April 16, 2025), critical retracement levels include 38.2% at $16.50 and 61.8% at $14.20. The current price of $16.39 is near the 38.2% level, suggesting a potential pivot point. A break above $16.50 could target the 50% retracement at $18.40, while a drop below $16.20 may test the 23.6% level at $15.50.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy, focusing on MACD Death Cross events from 2022 to 2025, reveals a moderate bullish bias in historical performance. For RKT, the strategy’s win rates (51.52% over 3 days, 57.58% over 30 days) suggest a slight edge in favor of short-term recovery after bearish signals. However, recent technicals (MACD Death Cross, KDJ Death Cross) indicate a bearish setup, creating a divergence between historical data and current conditions. This implies that while the stock may exhibit historical resilience post-Death Cross, the immediate context is more bearish, necessitating caution. The strategy’s maximum return of +4.27% on day 59 underscores the importance of holding periods, but aligns with RKT’s recent volatility and consolidation.