Robotics: A Scalable Growth Engine for 2026 and Beyond

The robotics market is no longer a niche factory-floor tool-it's a scalable growth engine with a massive and expanding addressable market. The foundation is clear: the global market for industrial robot installations has just hit an all-time high of $16.7 billion. But that's just the starting point. The long-term vision is staggering, with the broader robotics market forecast to grow from approximately $64.8 billion today to about $375.8 billion by 2035. That's a compound annual growth rate of roughly 17% over the next decade, representing a nearly sixfold expansion in the total addressable market.

This isn't just about more robots on assembly lines. The most dynamic growth is happening in mobility and versatility. The mobile robotics segment, which includes autonomous forklifts and warehouse bots, is a prime example. While specific 2024 revenue figures aren't in the evidence, the trajectory is defined by a projected 19% compound annual growth rate through 2030. This segment is accelerating as businesses seek to automate logistics and fulfillment, moving beyond fixed automation to flexible, mobile solutions.

The convergence of three powerful catalysts explains why this growth is accelerating now. First, AI-driven autonomy is transforming robots from pre-programmed machines to intelligent, adaptive systems. Analytical AI enables predictive maintenance and smarter path planning, while generative and agentic AI allow robots to learn new tasks and interact with humans more naturally. Second, persistent labor shortages are creating an urgent economic imperative to automate. Robots offer a scalable solution to fill gaps in warehousing, logistics, and manufacturing. Third, policy-driven reshoring is tightening supply chains and incentivizing local production, which inherently increases demand for automation to maintain competitiveness. These forces are not cyclical; they are secular trends that are broadening the application of robotics far beyond traditional manufacturing into healthcare, logistics, and specialized services.

The bottom line is a market poised for sustained, high-growth expansion. The sheer scale of the 2035 TAM provides a long runway for leaders, while the explosive growth in mobile robotics highlights where the near-term action is. For a growth investor, the setup is compelling: a massive market is being reshaped by technology, economics, and policy, creating a multi-year opportunity to capture market share.

The Value Chain: Where Growth and Revenue Capture Happen

The true investment story in robotics isn't just about selling more machines; it's about capturing value across a shifting value chain. The central driver of this shift is artificial intelligence, which is redefining what robots can do and where they can be deployed. The market is moving beyond simple automation to intelligent systems, with a clear distinction emerging between analytical AI and generative AI. Analytical AI processes data to enable predictive maintenance and optimize path planning in logistics, while generative AI allows robots to learn new tasks autonomously and interact through natural language. The most powerful frontier is the convergence of these technologies into agentic AI, creating systems capable of independent operation in complex environments. This evolution is the core of the growth engine, moving revenue capture from hardware sales to the software and intelligence layers that make robots truly autonomous.

This technological leap is broadening the market into entirely new revenue streams. Robotics is rapidly spreading beyond traditional manufacturing into healthcare, logistics, and specialized services. The market is no longer just about factory arms; it's about mobile, collaborative, and humanoid machines. This expansion is creating diverse business models-from high-margin service contracts in healthcare to scalable software licensing for warehouse automation. The growth isn't limited to a single application; it's a multi-pronged attack on inefficiency across the economy.

Within this landscape, one segment is poised for massive scale: automated storage and retrieval systems (AS/RS). According to market forecasts, AS/RS is expected to account for nearly half of all mobile robot shipments by 2030. This isn't a niche application; it's the dominant use case for mobile robotics, driven by the urgent need to automate fulfillment centers and warehouses. The revenue capture here is substantial, as AS/RS deployments involve not just the robots themselves but also sophisticated software for inventory management, integration with enterprise systems, and ongoing service. For a growth investor, this represents a high-volume, high-margin segment where the TAM is being realized through specific, scalable infrastructure projects.

The bottom line is a value chain where software and integrated intelligence are capturing more value than hardware alone. The most scalable opportunities lie in the segments that combine AI-driven autonomy with broad market adoption, like mobile robotics for logistics. Companies that can provide the end-to-end solution-hardware, software, and services-will be best positioned to capture this expanding revenue pie.

Geographic Diversification and Competitive Shifts

The geographic and competitive landscape for robotics is undergoing a fundamental reset, creating both risks and new growth hubs for market leaders. The most structural shift is the clear transition from older, fixed-path technology to truly autonomous systems. This is moving revenue away from Automated Guided Vehicles (AGVs) toward Autonomous Mobile Robots (AMRs). The data is stark: AGV revenue is expected to drop from around 33% of total mobile robot revenue in 2024 to 20% in 2030. This isn't just a product upgrade; it's a market redefinition where intelligence and flexibility command a higher price, reshaping the competitive dynamics for all players.

Simultaneously, the center of gravity for mobile robotics is shifting. China's dominance, built on early government support and e-commerce growth, is eroding. Its share of the global mobile robots market is projected to fall from 58% in 2024 to 46% by 2030. This decline is driven by a plateau in domestic demand, while other regions see accelerated expansion. For investors, this signals a maturing Chinese market and a growing opportunity for non-local vendors to capture share in these rising markets. The revenue share for China's mobile robots is also forecast to fall from 36% to 27% over the same period, highlighting a broader trend of market diversification.

This geographic rebalancing aligns with a key investment outlook. BNP Paribas, in its 2026 guidance, identifies robotics as a key emerging market in the tech sector and advocates for a rebalancing away from US stocks and the greenback towards the rest of the world, especially to technology-heavy Asian stock markets. This recommendation underscores the view that the next frontier for robotics adoption-particularly in humanoid and advanced automation-is concentrated in Asia. The firm sees this as a pivotal trend to capture, steering portfolios toward the very regions where robotics demand is expected to surge.

The bottom line is a market where technological obsolescence and geographic concentration are both risks. The AGV-to-AMR transition demands continuous innovation, while the erosion of China's dominance opens doors for agile competitors. For a growth investor, the opportunity lies in identifying companies positioned to win in the new, more diverse global landscape-those with the technology to lead the AMR wave and the commercial reach to capture share in the rising Asian markets.

Investment Thesis and What to Watch

The forward-looking investment framework for robotics is clear: capture the high-growth, AI-driven expansion while navigating the risks of economic cycles and geographic shifts. The primary near-term risk is a broader economic slowdown or persistent tariff uncertainty disrupting corporate investment cycles. Evidence shows this is already happening, with Interact Analysis downwardly revising its 2024-2030 mobile robot growth forecast by 12% due to tariff-related investment disruption. This creates a vulnerability where growth could decelerate if macro conditions worsen, making it crucial to monitor leading indicators of capital expenditure.

The sustainability of the high growth rate beyond traditional manufacturing hinges on continued adoption in new verticals. The market's trajectory depends on its ability to scale in healthcare, logistics, and specialized services. The evidence confirms this broadening is underway, with the global robotics market forecast to expand from $64.8 billion to about $375.8 billion by 2035. Yet, for growth investors, the key question is execution. Can companies successfully translate AI-driven autonomy into repeatable revenue streams in these diverse, often regulated, new markets? The answer will determine if the sector can maintain its multi-year acceleration.

Geographic diversification is the third critical variable. The erosion of China's dominance is a clear trend, with its share of the mobile robots market projected to fall from 58% in 2024 to 46% in 2030. This creates a massive opportunity for non-local vendors, but the pace of this shift and the acceleration of adoption in North America and Europe will be key indicators. Watch for which companies are gaining share in these rising markets and whether the revenue capture from premium-priced segments like mobile forklifts, which are projected to deliver roughly 33% of total mobile robot revenue, can offset any plateau in China.

For growth investors, the thesis is to monitor companies positioned at the intersection of technological leadership in AMRs, successful vertical expansion, and geographic reach. The catalysts are the continued rollout of AI features, the scaling of automated storage and retrieval systems, and the shift in global market share. The risks are macroeconomic headwinds and the execution risk of diversifying beyond manufacturing. The setup offers a scalable growth engine, but its path to dominance will be defined by how well it navigates these three fronts.