Roblox: Can Underutilized Monetization and AI-Driven Discovery Drive a Comeback?

Roblox (RBLX) has been a rollercoaster for investors since its 2021 peak, but the company's underutilized monetization tools and algorithmic content-discovery systems could position it for a rebound. With shares down 50% from their all-time high, now may be the time to consider whether Roblox can reclaim its former glory—or even surpass it.

A Stock in Flux, but Potential in Plain Sight

Roblox's stock closed at $67.12 on June 6, 2025, a far cry from its $134.72 all-time high in November 2021. Yet, the platform's core metrics—380 million monthly active users (MAUs) and 97.8 million daily active users (DAUs)—suggest a user base that's not just growing but deepening its engagement. The question is: Can Roblox finally unlock its full revenue potential?

The Underutilized Monetization Playbook

Roblox's $1.04 billion in 2025 revenue (up 29% YoY) hints at untapped opportunities. Analysts at Oppenheimer note that the company has a “deep bench of underutilized monetization features,” including immersive ads, subscriptions, and plugins. Here's why this matters:

1. Immersive Ads & Subscriptions:
   Roblox's ad revenue is still nascent. While immersive ads allow brands to place dynamic content within games, adoption remains limited. A push to integrate rewarded ad formats or personalized targeting could boost ad revenue significantly. Meanwhile, subscriptions—like ad-free tiers or exclusive content passes—could cater to its 41% adult user base, which is underserved by current offerings.

2. Creator Economy Leverage:
   Creators earned $824 million in 2025, but Roblox could amplify this by expanding regional revenue-sharing models. For instance, in fast-growing markets like India and Southeast Asia, localized monetization (e.g., microtransactions in local currencies) could unlock higher pay rates. Additionally, plugins—tools like analytics or AI-driven design—remain underused, offering a path to higher creator retention and revenue.

3. Live Ops & Event-Driven Sales:
   Games like “Grow a Garden”, which hit 1 billion visits in 33 days, show the power of theme-driven updates. Roblox could monetize these events more aggressively via time-limited items, virtual events, or branded partnerships.

Algorithmic Discovery: The Hidden Growth Lever

Roblox's discovery system, which handles 10.5 billion daily impressions, is its unsung hero. Its 2025 roadmap focuses on:
- Personalized Home Pages: Dynamic rankings and “Today's Picks” are already driving diversity in top games.
- AI-Powered Search: Genre-specific filters and multilingual support help users find niche content, boosting engagement.
- Social Referrals: The new friend referral program has increased co-play sessions by 90%, as players invite friends to shared experiences.

These changes have already paid off. DAUs rose 26% YoY, and engagement hours hit 21.7 billion annually, up 30%. Yet, there's room to refine algorithms further—like prioritizing content with high replay value or integrating user feedback loops to improve recommendations.

Recent Momentum Signals a Turnaround

Roblox's Q2 2025 results are promising:
- DAUs hit 97.8 million, with strong gains in North America and Asia-Pacific.
- Average monthly payers rose 29% to 20.2 million.
- Booking growth (31% YoY) reflects improved monetization tools, like dynamic pricing for in-game items.

The platform's “Grow a Garden” success—a record-breaking 8.9 million concurrent users—demonstrates how strong discovery and monetization can create viral hits. If Roblox applies these lessons broadly, its stock could climb.

Risks to Consider

• Overmonetization: Pushing too many ads or subscriptions could alienate younger users.
• Competition: Meta's Horizon Worlds and Fortnite's live ops remain threats.
• Scaling Costs: Supporting 380 million MAUs requires robust infrastructure investments.

Investment Thesis: Buy the Dip, but Mind the Risks

Roblox's stock is priced for disappointment, trading at just 5x 2025 revenue estimates. If it executes on its monetization and discovery roadmap, a rebound to $80–$100+ is feasible—potentially nearing its 2021 highs. Key catalysts include:
- Q4 2025 earnings, which could show sustained booking growth.
- Holiday season launches, leveraging its discovery tools for seasonal events.

Historically, this strategy has delivered strong results. From 2020 to 2025, buying RBLX on earnings announcement days and holding for 30 days generated a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.38%, with excess returns of 21.62%. The strategy also demonstrated good risk-adjusted performance, as measured by a Sharpe ratio of 0.28. This underscores the potential of earnings catalysts to drive sustained gains.

The platform's “Grow a Garden” success—a record-breaking 8.9 million concurrent users—demonstrates how strong discovery and monetization can create viral hits. If Roblox applies these lessons broadly, its stock could climb.

Investors should take a long position with a $75–$80 price target, but remain cautious on execution risks. Roblox's potential lies in its ability to turn its vast user base into a sustained revenue engine—and the tools are already in place to do so.

In a market hungry for growth, Roblox's underused strategies could make it a comeback story worth watching.