Roblox Stock Jumps 5.81% to Near Record High on Heavy Volume Surge

Roblox (RBLX) rose 5.81% to $111.83 in the latest session, marking its second consecutive daily gain and bringing its two-day advance to 6.47%. This surge occurred on heightened volume of 8.00 million shares, suggesting strong buying momentum. The stock is now trading near its 52-week high, warranting a comprehensive technical assessment of its positioning and potential trajectory.
Candlestick Theory
Recent candlestick formations reveal a bullish reversal pattern. The July 10th session printed a hammer candle (low: $102.73, close: $105.03) near established support at $102-103, signaling exhaustion of selling pressure. This was followed by a bullish engulfing pattern on July 14th, where the candle completely consumed the prior three sessions' range while closing near the day's high ($111.83 vs. high: $111.96). Immediate resistance now materializes near the all-time high at $112, while support consolidates between $105 (recent swing low) and $102 (June and July reaction lows). A decisive close above $112 may trigger accelerated upside.
Moving Average Theory
Roblox maintains a robust bullish alignment across key moving averages. The 50-day SMA ($103.50) has consistently remained above the 100-day SMA ($93.20) and 200-day SMA ($74.80), confirming the primary uptrend. The current price trades 8% above the 50-day SMA, demonstrating sustained upward momentum. Notably, the rising 200-day SMA has provided dynamic support during pullbacks since Q4 2024, most recently reinforcing the May-June basing pattern. This multi-layered moving average structure indicates powerful intermediate and long-term bullish bias.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD (12,26,9) currently registers at +4.50, with its histogram expanding for five consecutive sessions – the most sustained bullish momentum signal since early June. Concurrently, the KDJ oscillator shows the %K line (89) crossing above %D (83) near overbought territory while the J-line (101) extends into extreme overbought zones. Though KDJ suggests overextension risk, the MACD’s accelerating trajectory implies room for further upside before a material correction. Divergence would become a concern if prices make new highs without corresponding MACD confirmation.
Bollinger Bands
Price action is testing the upper Bollinger Band ($110.20) after a volatility expansion phase, with bandwidth increasing 30% during the July advance. Historically, such upper-band tests have preceded brief consolidations (as observed in early May and mid-June), though sustained closes above the upper band would indicate exceptional strength. The bands' expanding width (+15% over two weeks) reflects renewed volatility that typically accompanies trending moves, while the mid-band (20-day SMA at $106.20) now serves as primary pullback support.
Volume-Price Relationship
The July 14th breakout occurred on 76% above-average volume, validating the bullish price surge. Notably, the two-day rally accumulated 12.5 million shares – the highest two-session volume since early May – confirming institutional participation. This distribution contrasts with the below-average volume during the July 10-11 consolidation, demonstrating the classic "accumulation before markup" pattern. Sustained trade above 6 million shares daily would support continuation, while fading volume on new highs may signal exhaustion.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI sits at 72, crossing into overbought territory for the first time since February. While this warrants caution about near-term exhaustion, the RSI’s upward slope and prior broken bearish divergence (from June highs) mitigate immediate reversal concerns. The indicator’s warning potential is tempered by the stock’s strong trending characteristics; during primary uptrends, RSI can remain overbought for extended periods before significant corrections. Traders should watch for bearish divergence or reversal patterns if RSI approaches 75-80.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent swing low ($93.73 on June 13) and swing high ($111.96 on July 14) yields critical support thresholds. The 23.6% retracement ($107.24) aligns with the July 10th intraday reversal, while the 38.2% level ($104.30) converges with the June consolidation zone. The 50% retracement ($102.84) coincides with the July breakout point and the 200-hour moving average. These confluent technical levels make the $104-107 range a high-probability demand zone should profit-taking emerge, while sustained trade above $112 opens technical measured move targets toward $125.