Roblox Surges to 52-Week High: Analyst Boost and User Surge Ignite Momentum—What’s Next?

• Roblox (RBLX) soars 6.36% to $119.63, hitting a new 52-week high of $120.15.
• JPMorgan upgrades RBLX to $125, citing record 32M concurrent users and new licensing tools for franchises like Stranger Things.
• The stock has now rallied 103% YTD, with 17+ 5%+ moves in the last year alone.
• Options volume spikes as traders bet on extended gains amid creator economy tailwinds.

Today’s surge caps a volatile week for the metaverse pioneer, with the JPMorgan call and licensing news catalyzing a breakout above $115 resistance. The stock’s 52-week range of $35.30–$120.15 highlights its rollercoaster trajectory, now poised for a potential $125 challenge.

JPMorgan Upgrade and User Surge Ignite Roblox’s Rally
Roblox’s explosive 6.36% intraday rally was driven by twin catalysts: JPMorgan’s $125 price target upgrade and surging user engagement metrics. Analyst Cory Carpenter highlighted record-breaking concurrent users (32M) and bookings growth of 37% QoQ, far exceeding internal forecasts. The launch of a new licensing platform—enabling IP integrations from Stranger Things, Squid Game, and other franchises—bolstered confidence in its creator economy model. This news layering atop a Bloomberg report two days prior detailing $3M+ game sales by teen developers created a perfect storm of optimism, pushing RBLX to breach its prior $115 resistance.

Entertainment Software Sector Lagging as RBLX Outshines Peers
Leverage RBLU for Bullish Momentum—Top Calls Highlight Roblox’s Upside
Technical Indicators:
• Bollinger Bands: Current price ($119.63) exceeds upper band ($111.15) by 7.6%, signaling overextension.
• RSI: 62.66 (neutral, below 70 overbought threshold).
• MACD: Positive divergence (4.92 vs 5.02 signal line), suggesting bullish momentum.
• 200-Day MA: $65.52—far below current price, confirming long-term uptrend.

Trading Setup: Aggressive bulls can use the T-REX 2X Long RBLX Daily Target ETF (RBLU) for leveraged exposure, up 13.4% today. Key resistance at $120 (JPM’s target) and $125 (psychological round number) will test momentum. For options traders:

1. RBLX20250725C120 (Call, Strike $120):
• Leverage Ratio: 36.24% | Theta: -0.426 | Gamma: 0.0464
• High liquidity ($647,205 turnover) and delta 0.502 make this ideal for a $120+ breakout. Payoff at $125: $5.00 intrinsic value vs current $0.62 premium.

2. RBLX20250725C119 (Call, Strike $119):
• Leverage Ratio: 30.12% | Theta: -0.456 | Gamma: 0.0439
• Tighter strike with $164,115 turnover offers lower risk/reward for $120+ moves. Payoff at $122: $3.00 gain.

Action Hook: Bulls targeting $125? RBLX20250725C120 offers 36% leverage into JPM’s price target—monitor $118 support for stop-loss discipline.

Backtest Roblox Stock Performance
The backtest of Roblox's (RBLX) performance following a 6% intraday increase shows a strategy that underperformed the benchmark. The strategy's CAGR was 9.39%, trailing the benchmark's CAGR by 6.17%. With a maximum drawdown of 0.00% and a Sharpe ratio of 0.13, the strategy had low risk but modest returns.

Roblox’s Rally Faces Key Resistance—Bulls Eye $125 Target
Roblox’s momentum remains intact but faces critical hurdles at $120 and $125. While the creator economy’s viral growth and institutional upgrades justify optimism, traders must watch JPMorgan’s $125 price target—a level requiring ~4.5% from current prices. Sector laggard Electronic Arts (EA, +0.44%) underscores RBLX’s leadership, but extreme volatility (17+ 5% swings YTD) demands caution. For now, the stock’s technicals and options flow suggest aggressive bulls are in control—until $115 support fails. Final Take: Ride the momentum with RBLU or targeted calls, but set stops below $115 to protect gains amid looming resistance.