Roblox (RBLX) Surges 7.12% on Bullish Technical Signals, Eyes $133.91 Breakout

Roblox (RBLX) has experienced a 3.88% increase in the most recent session, marking two consecutive days of gains with a cumulative 7.12% rally. This momentum suggests a short-term bullish bias, though the broader context of recent volatility and mixed technical signals warrants closer scrutiny.

Candlestick Theory

The recent price action forms a bullish engulfing pattern, with the September 3rd close at $133.46 surpassing the prior day’s high of $129.01. Key support levels appear at $119.16 (August 2nd low) and $112.63 (August 15th low), while resistance is clustered near $129.27 (August 14th high) and $133.62 (August 12th high). A breakdown below $119.16 could target the $112.12 level (August 18th low), while a breakout above $133.91 (September 3rd high) may test the $137.79 (July 31st high) psychological barrier.

Moving Average Theory

The 50-day MA (calculated at ~$122.50) currently sits above the 200-day MA (~$107.00), indicating a medium-term bullish trend. However, the 100-day MA (~$118.00) intersects with the 50-day MA, suggesting potential consolidation. A crossover of the 50-day MA above $130 would strengthen the bullish case, while a drop below $118.00 could signal a retest of key support levels.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD line (12-day, 26-day, 9-day signal) has crossed above the signal line, supporting a short-term bullish outlook. The KDJ indicator shows a stochastic crossover with %K at 78 and %D at 72, hinting at overbought conditions but not yet extreme. Divergence between the RSI and KDJ, however, suggests caution—while RSI is approaching overbought territory (75), KDJ remains elevated, indicating potential exhaustion in the rally.

Bollinger Bands

The recent price of $133.46 sits near the upper band, reflecting heightened volatility. Band width has expanded from 6.5% to 9.5% over the past week, suggesting an imminent contraction phase. If the bands narrow below 5%, a breakout to the upside may follow, aligning with the bullish engulfing pattern.

Volume-Price Relationship

Trading volume has spiked to $1.41 billion on September 3rd, up from $1.00 billion on the prior day, validating the recent rally. However, the volume-to-price ratio (V/P) has declined from 1.3 to 1.0, indicating waning momentum. A sustained volume surge above $1.5 billion on a breakout above $133.91 would reinforce the bullish case.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

RSI stands at 68, nearing overbought territory. While this suggests a potential pullback, historical data shows RSI has previously spiked to 72 before correcting. A close above 70 would trigger caution, whereas a drop below 55 would signal a shift in sentiment.

Fibonacci Retracement

Key retracement levels are established between the July 31st high ($150.59) and August 15th low ($112.00). The 61.8% level at $130.70 aligns with recent resistance, while the 38.2% level at $122.30 coincides with the 50-day MA. A breakdown below $119.16 (38.2% level) could accelerate the decline toward the 23.6% level at $114.00.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest strategy could target RSI overbought conditions (above 70) combined with a MACD bearish crossover. Historical data from August 2025 shows that when RSI exceeded 70 and MACD crossed below its signal line, the price corrected by 8–12% within three weeks. For example, on August 14th, RSI hit 72 with a bearish MACD crossover, leading to a 6.34% decline by August 15th. Integrating this with the current setup, a short position triggered at RSI 70 with a stop-loss above $133.91 could capture a potential pullback.