Robinhood Markets (HOOD) Surges 3.29% on Earnings Momentum and Crypto Expansion – Is the Rally Sustainable?

Summary
• Robinhood Markets (HOOD) surges 3.29% intraday to $109.13, hitting a 52-week high of $113.44
• Q2 earnings beat estimates with 45% revenue growth to $989M and $0.42 EPS
• Bitstamp integration and Robinhood Banking expansion drive optimism
• 52-week price-sales ratio of 31.9x and forward P/E of 69.9x highlight stretched valuation

Robinhood Markets (HOOD) is trading at its highest level since 2025, fueled by robust Q2 earnings and strategic expansion into crypto and banking. The stock’s 3.29% intraday gain reflects investor confidence in its full-spectrum financial services pivot, despite stretched multiples. With $6B in July net deposits and a $93.4B market cap, HOOD’s rally hinges on sustaining high-margin revenue growth and executing its multi-vertical expansion.

Earnings Outperformance and Strategic Expansion Fuel HOOD's Rally
Robinhood’s Q2 earnings report, released last week, catalyzed the rally. Revenue surged 45% to $989M, driven by 65% growth in transaction-based revenue and a 98% spike in crypto revenue. The acquisition of Bitstamp and plans for Robinhood Banking underscore its shift from a trading app to a diversified financial platform. While the stock dipped 3% post-earnings due to higher expense guidance ($2.15B–$2.25B), the broader narrative of asset growth ($279B in platform assets) and margin expansion (48.8% net income margin) has reignited bullish sentiment. Analysts highlight the potential of sports betting, asset tokenization, and prediction markets to justify elevated multiples.

Broker-Dealers Sector Mixed as Robinhood Outperforms
The Broker-Dealers sector, led by The Charles Schwab (SCHW), saw mixed performance. SCHW declined 1.21% intraday, contrasting HOOD’s 3.29% surge. Robinhood’s outperformance stems from its aggressive expansion into crypto and banking, whereas traditional brokers face regulatory scrutiny and margin compression. The sector’s 30-day average turnover rate of 5.03% aligns with HOOD’s 5.03% rate, but HOOD’s 67.14x dynamic P/E far exceeds industry norms. This divergence highlights HOOD’s speculative premium versus peers’ defensive positioning.

Leveraged ETFs and Options Signal Aggressive Bullish Play
• 200-day average: $54.61 (well below current price) • RSI: 50.27 (neutral) • MACD: 4.63 (bullish divergence) • Bollinger Bands: Price at 109.13 (near upper band of 109.44) • 30-day support/resistance: 99.48–100.02

Robinhood’s technicals suggest a continuation of its bullish trend. The stock is trading near its 52-week high and above all major moving averages. The T-Rex 2X Long HOOD Daily Target ETF (ROBN) and Defiance Daily Target 2X Long HOOD ETF (HOOX) offer leveraged exposure, with HOOX up 6.89% and ROBN up 6.44% today. For options, two contracts stand out:

• HOOD20250815C105 (Call, $105 strike, 2025-08-15 expiry):
- IV: 59.91% (moderate)
- Leverage ratio: 16.40%
- Delta: 0.6895 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.5243 (high time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0343 (high sensitivity to price movement)
- Turnover: 4.18M (high liquidity)
- Payoff at 5% upside (114.59): $9.59 per contract
- Why it stands out: High gamma and moderate delta make it ideal for a short-term rally.

• HOOD20250815C108 (Call, $108 strike, 2025-08-15 expiry):
- IV: 58.77% (moderate)
- Leverage ratio: 22.79%
- Delta: 0.5781 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.4935 (high time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0388 (high sensitivity to price movement)
- Turnover: 1.14M (high liquidity)
- Payoff at 5% upside (114.59): $6.59 per contract
- Why it stands out: Strong gamma and liquidity for aggressive bulls.

Action: Aggressive bulls may consider HOOD20250815C105 into a break above $110.50, while HOOX offers leveraged exposure with lower volatility.

Backtest Robinhood Markets Stock Performance
The performance of HOOD after a 3% intraday surge has historically led to positive short-to-medium-term gains. The backtest data shows that:1. Frequency and Win Rate: The event occurred 488 times over the past five years, with a 3-day win rate of 55.94%, a 10-day win rate of 58.81%, and a 30-day win rate of 57.58%. This indicates a higher probability of a positive return in the short to medium term after the intraday surge.2. Returns: The average 3-day return following the event was 1.17%, the 10-day return was 2.85%, and the 30-day return was 7.54%. These returns suggest that while the immediate post-increase gains may be modest, there is potential for further appreciation in the following days.3. Maximum Return: The maximum return observed was 14.61% over 30 days, which highlights the potential for significant gains if the momentum from the intraday surge is sustained.In conclusion, HOOD has shown favorable performance after a 3% intraday increase, with higher win rates and positive returns in the short to medium term. Investors may consider these findings when assessing the potential for trading in HOOD around such events.

Bullish Momentum Intact – Key Levels to Watch for Next Move
Robinhood’s rally is underpinned by earnings momentum and strategic expansion, but its stretched valuation (31.9x P/S, 69.9x forward P/E) demands execution in crypto, banking, and prediction markets. The 200-day MA at $54.61 and 30-day support at $99.48 remain critical for trend confirmation. With the sector leader SCHW down 1.21%, investors should monitor HOOD’s ability to sustain its 52-week high of $113.44. Watch for a breakdown below $103.33 (middle Bollinger Band) or a breakout above $112.63 (intraday high) to signal next-phase direction.