Robinhood Soars 13% on Crypto Rally and Earnings Hype – What’s Next?

Summary
• Robinhood Markets (HOOD) surges 13.17% intraday, hitting $84.30 highs amid crypto rebound.
• Turnover jumps to 47.1 million shares, outpacing average volume by 39%.
• Earnings report on Feb. 10 looms as key catalyst for momentum.
• Analysts project 30% revenue growth for Q4 2025, driven by crypto and options trading.

Robinhood’s 13% intraday rally has ignited market speculation, fueled by a crypto rebound and bullish earnings forecasts. The stock’s sharp rebound from a $77.12 low to a $84.30 high reflects renewed investor confidence in its transaction-based revenue model. With 47.1 million shares traded and a 30.5% year-over-year revenue growth projection, the move underscores a strategic pivot toward crypto and options trading amid easing Fed policy.

Crypto Rebound and Earnings Optimism Fuel HOOD Surge
Robinhood’s 13.17% intraday gain is directly tied to a rebound in cryptocurrency prices, which lifted the stock alongside peers like Coinbase. Bitcoin’s recovery from a recent dip triggered a broader risk-on sentiment, amplifying demand for Robinhood’s crypto trading platform. Additionally, a 'Buy' consensus from 21 analysts and projections for 30% top-line growth in Q4 2025—driven by favorable crypto regulations and robust options trading—have stoked short-term optimism. The stock’s volatility, however, remains a double-edged sword, as seen in its 8.4% drop two days prior amid AI-driven software sector jitters.

Broker-Dealers Rally as Schwab Leads Sector Gains
The Broker-Dealers sector has seen mixed momentum, with Charles Schwab (SCHW) rising 3.06% on strong Q4 earnings and asset management growth. Robinhood’s 13% surge, however, outpaces Schwab’s move, reflecting its unique exposure to crypto and options trading. While Schwab’s gains stem from traditional brokerage and fixed-income services, Robinhood’s rally is tied to speculative flows and regulatory tailwinds for crypto. This divergence highlights the sector’s bifurcation between legacy and innovation-driven players.

Options Playbook: High-Leverage Puts for Volatility Play
• 200-day average: $104.82 (below current price); RSI: 3.04 (oversold); MACD: -9.42 (bearish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: Upper $129.42, Middle $103.94, Lower $78.46 (price near lower band)
• Support/Resistance: 30D $115.15–$116.16, 200D $114.93–$117.14 (current price below key levels)

Robinhood’s technicals suggest a short-term bounce from oversold RSI and Bollinger Band support, but long-term bearish divergence in MACD and a 43x dynamic PE ratio indicate caution. The stock’s 13% intraday move has created high-liquidity options opportunities. Two top picks from the chain are:

• HOOD20260213P75: Put option with strike $75, expiring Feb. 13. Key stats: IV 108.09% (high volatility), leverage ratio 39.15% (moderate), delta -0.2546 (moderate sensitivity), theta -0.1422 (rapid time decay), gamma 0.0244 (high sensitivity to price swings), turnover $576,165 (liquid).
• HOOD20260213P74: Put option with strike $74, expiring Feb. 13. Key stats: IV 109.85% (high volatility), leverage ratio 44.93% (high), delta -0.2313 (moderate sensitivity), theta -0.1442 (rapid time decay), gamma 0.0228 (high sensitivity), turnover $193,850 (liquid).

Both contracts offer high leverage and liquidity, ideal for capitalizing on continued volatility. A 5% upside scenario (to $86.37) would yield HOOD20260213P75 a payoff of $11.37 per contract (max(0, $86.37 - $75)) and HOOD20260213P74 a payoff of $12.37 (max(0, $86.37 - $74)). Aggressive bulls may consider HOOD20260213C70 into a break above $84.30.

Backtest Robinhood Markets Stock Performance
The backtest of HOOD's performance after a 13% intraday surge from 2022 to the present shows favorable results. The 3-Day win rate is 56.05%, the 10-Day win rate is 60.35%, and the 30-Day win rate is 62.30%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short term. The maximum return during the backtest was 20.98% over 30 days, suggesting that HOOD can deliver significant gains even after the initial surge.

Volatility-Driven Play: Ride the Crypto Earnings Wave or Exit on Pullback
Robinhood’s 13% surge is a short-term bet on crypto recovery and earnings optimism, but its 43x PE and bearish MACD suggest caution. Investors should monitor the $84.30 intraday high as a critical resistance level and the Feb. 10 earnings report for confirmation. The sector leader, Charles Schwab (SCHW), is up 3.06%, signaling broader broker-dealer strength. For now, high-leverage puts like HOOD20260213P75 offer a volatile play, but position sizing must reflect the stock’s 58%+ historical moves. Watch for a breakdown below $78.46 (Bollinger Band support) or a breakout above $84.30 to validate the trade.