Robinhood Soars 10.75% on Prediction Market Breakthrough: What’s Next for HOOD?

Summary
• Robinhood Markets (HOOD) surges 10.75% intraday, trading at $127.999 after opening at $121.33
• Acquires 90% stake in MIAX Derivatives Exchange to expand into regulated prediction markets
• Intraday high of $128.31 and low of $120.87 highlight volatile session
• Options volume spikes with 30 million shares traded, signaling aggressive positioning

Robinhood’s stock erupted in a dramatic 10.75% rally on November 26, 2025, driven by a landmark deal to acquire MIAX Derivatives Exchange. The move into prediction markets has ignited retail and institutional speculation, with options traders scrambling to position for a potential breakout. The stock’s 52-week high of $153.86 remains a distant target, but the immediate focus is on whether this strategic pivot can sustain momentum.

Prediction Market Expansion Ignites Retail Frenzy
Robinhood’s 10.75% surge stems from its partnership with Susquehanna International Group to acquire a 90% stake in MIAX Derivatives Exchange, a CFTC-regulated platform previously linked to FTX. This acquisition marks Robinhood’s first major foray into regulated prediction markets and derivatives trading, positioning it to capture a growing segment of retail investors seeking speculative opportunities. The deal, set to close in early 2026, has rekindled investor optimism about HOOD’s ability to diversify revenue streams beyond equities and crypto. Analysts at Piper Sandler called the move 'quite positive,' noting that prediction markets could unlock higher-margin recurring revenue. The stock’s sharp move reflects a shift in sentiment from recent volatility, as traders bet on regulatory tailwinds and product innovation.

Broker-Dealer Sector Mixed as Schwab Gains 1.7%
The broader broker-dealer sector showed mixed performance, with The Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW) rising 1.7% as investors rotated into more stable financial plays. However, Robinhood’s 10.75% surge far outpaced sector peers, driven by its unique positioning in prediction markets. While Schwab’s growth remains tied to traditional wealth management, Robinhood’s bet on derivatives and event-based trading could redefine its competitive edge—if execution aligns with expectations.

Options Playbook: Leverage High-Volatility Contracts for HOOD’s Breakout
• 200-day average: $88.02 (well below current price)
• RSI: 32.06 (oversold territory)
• MACD: -6.25 (bearish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: $101.497–$153.578 (current price near upper band)

Robinhood’s technicals suggest a short-term overbought condition, but the stock’s fundamentals are being redefined by its prediction market push. Key levels to watch include the 200-day MA at $88.02 and the 52-week high of $153.86. A break above $128.31 (intraday high) could trigger a test of the $153.58 upper Bollinger Band. For leveraged exposure, consider Direxion Daily Fintech Index Bull 3x Shares (FINT) if the sector gains traction.

Top Options Contracts:
• HOOD20251205C125 (Call, $125 strike, 12/5 expiration):
- IV: 58.63% (moderate)
- Leverage Ratio: 20.53%
- Delta: 0.598 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.519 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0313 (high sensitivity to price swings)
- Turnover: 3.37 million shares
- Payoff at 5% upside: $12.40 (max(0, 134.399 - 125))
- Why it stands out: High gamma and moderate delta make this contract ideal for a short-term rally. The 58.63% IV suggests market uncertainty, aligning with the stock’s volatile trajectory.

• HOOD20251205C126 (Call, $126 strike, 12/5 expiration):
- IV: 57.70% (moderate)
- Leverage Ratio: 22.82%
- Delta: 0.5665 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.506 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0324 (high sensitivity)
- Turnover: 2.04 million shares
- Payoff at 5% upside: $8.399 (max(0, 134.399 - 126))
- Why it stands out: Slightly out-of-the-money but with high gamma and liquidity, this contract offers a balance between risk and reward. The 22.82% leverage ratio amplifies potential gains if the stock breaks above $126.

Actionable Insight: Aggressive bulls should consider HOOD20251205C125 into a breakout above $128.31. For a more conservative approach, HOOD20251205C126 offers a lower-cost entry with high gamma to capitalize on volatility.

Backtest Robinhood Markets Stock Performance
Here is the quantitative review of the “11 % intraday-surge” trading idea on Robinhood Markets (HOOD) from 1 Jan 2022 through 25 Nov 2025. Assumptions that were auto-completed for you 1. Surge definition – Because “intraday surge” was not formally defined, we adopted a pragmatic criterion: High – Low ≥ 11 % of the previous close ( intraday_range / prev_close ≥ 0.11 ). • This is a common way to capture unusually wide bullish ranges when an explicit “open→high” rule is not supplied. 2. Exit rule – No explicit close signal was given, therefore each position is deemed closed at the session’s close on the same day (standard event-study convention). 3. Risk control – None specified; the raw signal was tested. Key back-test numbers • Cumulative return (re-invested): 910.96 % • Annualised return: 82.68 % • Max draw-down: 56.69 % • Sharpe ratio: 1.23 You can explore the full tear-sheet, entry calendar and equity curve in the interactive module below.Feel free to interact with the module to inspect trade-by-trade details, equity curve, and distribution of event returns. If you’d like to refine the entry rule (e.g., use High ≥ Open × 1.11, or test holding periods beyond same-day close), just let me know!

Robinhood’s Prediction Market Gambit: Time to Ride the Wave or Wait for Clarity?
Robinhood’s 10.75% surge underscores the market’s belief in its prediction market strategy, but sustainability hinges on execution. The stock’s technicals suggest a volatile near-term path, with key resistance at $128.31 and support at $120.87. Investors should monitor the 200-day MA at $88.02 as a critical trendline. For now, the Direxion Daily Fintech Index Bull 3x Shares (FINT) offers leveraged exposure to the broader sector, while HOOD’s options chain provides tailored bets. Watch for a $128.31 breakout or a regulatory headwind—either could redefine the stock’s trajectory.