Robinhood Rises 3.13% on Bullish Candlestick Pattern, Eyes $114.36 Resistance and $105.65 Support

Candlestick Theory

Robinhood Markets (HOOD) has exhibited a bullish candlestick pattern in recent sessions, with a 3.13% gain over two trading days. The price action suggests a potential continuation of an uptrend, supported by a key support level at $105.65 (identified from a prior consolidation zone) and a resistance at $114.36 (the 8/15 high). A bearish divergence may emerge if the price fails to close above $114.36, as this could trigger a retest of the $105.65 support.

Moving Average Theory

Short-term momentum aligns with the 50-day moving average (currently around $99.18), while the 100-day ($88.50) and 200-day ($76.83) averages reinforce a long-term bullish bias. The price remains above all three, suggesting a strong uptrend. However, the 50-day MA is approaching the 100-day MA, indicating a potential slowdown in acceleration. A crossover below the 50-day MA may signal a near-term pullback.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD histogram has turned positive, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line on 8/14, suggesting a bullish momentum shift. The KDJ oscillator (stochastic) indicates overbought conditions, with %K and %D converging near 80, hinting at a possible short-term correction. A bearish divergence between the K and D lines would strengthen the case for a reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded recently, with the bands widening from a narrow range on 8/12. The price is currently near the upper band, suggesting overbought conditions. A break below the middle band ($109.92) may confirm a distribution phase. The 20-period Bollinger Band width of 5.6% reflects heightened uncertainty, favoring a mean reversion play if the price tests the lower band at $104.36.

Volume-Price Relationship

Trading volume has surged to $3.62 billion on 8/15, validating the recent price strength. However, the volume profile shows a decline from the 8/14 session, which may indicate weakening momentum. A sustained increase in volume during a pullback would reinforce the bullish case, while a volume contraction could signal exhaustion.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The 14-period RSI stands at 68, approaching overbought territory. While this does not confirm a reversal, it warns of potential profit-taking. A close below 60 would suggest a shift in sentiment, with 50–55 likely acting as a short-term floor. The RSI’s recent divergence from price action (higher highs vs. lower RSI peaks) may foreshadow a correction.

Fibonacci Retracement

Key Fibonacci levels from the 8/1–8/15 rally ($93.90–$114.36) include 38.2% at $104.36 and 61.8% at $107.62. A breakdown below 61.8% would target the 78.6% level at $98.34. Conversely, a breakout above $114.36 could extend the trend to the 127.2% extension at $127.80, though this requires a surge in volume and momentum.

Backtest Hypothesis

The MACD golden cross strategy, which involves entering long positions when the MACD line crosses above the signal line and exiting after five days, showed a 15.78% annualized return from 2022 to 2025. However, its beta of 1.05 mirrors market risk, limiting diversification benefits. The 12.74% max drawdown and 1.43 Sharpe ratio suggest moderate risk-adjusted returns, but the strategy may benefit from incorporating Fibonacci retracement levels as exit targets to enhance risk management.