Robinhood Rises 17% In Six-Day Rally But Shows Signs Of Exhaustion

Robinhood Markets (HOOD) advanced 3.27% in the most recent session, marking its sixth consecutive day of gains and bringing the cumulative increase to 17.09% over this period.
Candlestick Theory
Recent candlestick patterns reveal notable bullish momentum, with the six-day rally characterized by multiple long green bodies (e.g., June 3: +5.50%, June 6: +3.27%). However, the most recent session printed a prominent upper wick (high: $77.8 vs. close: $74.88), signaling rejection near the $78 resistance level. This pattern—especially after a sustained rally—suggests potential exhaustion near-term. Immediate support lies at $71.13–$71.20 (June 4–5 lows), with sturdier support at $67.98 (June 2 close). Resistance is clearly established at $77.8, the year-to-date high.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages exhibit a bullish alignment (50 > 100 > 200), confirming a strong uptrend. The current price ($74.88) trades well above all three averages, with the 50-day MA (approximately $58–$60) acting as dynamic support. The ascending slope of these averages—particularly the 50-day MA accelerating upward—underscores robust intermediate momentum. A sustained price premium above the 50-day MA may indicate trend continuation, though mean-reversion risks warrant monitoring.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD (12,26,9) shows a bullish crossover above the signal line, aligned with the six-day rally’s momentum. Concurrently, the KDJ oscillator reflects overbought conditions, with the %K line exceeding 80 (recent calculations approximate 85+). Historically, KDJ readings above 80 precede pullbacks for HOOD. While MACD supports near-term bullishness, KDJ’s overextension hints at fading momentum. Divergence is notable here: MACD’s upward trajectory contrasts with KDJ’s warning of overheating.
Bollinger Bands
Price action hugs the upper Bollinger Band ($74–$75), indicating elevated bullish momentum. However, the bands have expanded sharply during the rally (bandwidth increase >20% in five sessions), signaling heightened volatility and a higher probability of consolidation. Historically, such expansions have preceded short-term pullbacks for HOOD. A contraction below the upper band could trigger profit-taking toward the 20-day moving average (mid-band, near $70).
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume trends during the rally exhibit inconsistencies. While the June 3 surge (+5.50%) saw elevated volume (43.3M shares), subsequent gains occurred on declining volume (June 4: 31.9M, June 6: 58.3M vs. 30-day average ~45M). This divergence suggests weakening conviction near the $78 resistance. The absence of climactic volume on breakout attempts may indicate unsustainable upward pressure without broader participation.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (~75) resides in overbought territory (>70) for the first time in four months. Historically, HOOD’s RSI readings above 70 have correlated with short-term corrections (e.g., 10–15% pullbacks in February and April). While RSI alone doesn’t dictate reversals, its current level—coupled with the vertical price ascent—warrants caution. A dip below 60 could signal waning momentum.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fib levels to the 2024 low ($13.98 on August 5, 2024) and the 2025 high ($77.80 on June 6, 2025) yields critical thresholds. The 23.6% retracement ($62.74) aligns with the June swing low ($62.92), offering immediate support. Deeper corrections would target $53.42 (38.2%) and $45.89 (50%), confluent with the 200-day MA and volume accumulation zones. The current price’s proximity to the 0% level ($77.80) reinforces resistance, with any sustained breakout requiring significant volume confirmation.
Confluence and Divergence Notes
Confluence appears at the $71–$72 support zone, where the 23.6% Fib level, 50-day MA, and recent swing lows converge—strengthening this floor. Divergence exists between momentum oscillators (MACD bullish, KDJ/RSI overbought) and volume trends (weakening on rallies), suggesting near-term exhaustion risks. The long upper wick on June 6 and Bollinger Band expansion further support this view. A consolidation phase toward $68–$72 appears probable, though a decisive break above $78 would invalidate bearish signals.