Robinhood's Q4 2025: The Crypto Miss Was Priced In, But the Gold Beat Wasn't

The core tension in Robinhood's fourth-quarter report was a classic divergence between what the market was expecting and what it got. The stock's immediate reaction-a decline of 1.29% to $85.44 in after-hours trading-tells the story. It fell because the revenue miss, driven by a sharp crypto slump, was more significant than the EPS beat, indicating the market had priced in stronger top-line growth.

The numbers show the split. For the quarter, revenue came in at $1.28 billion, a solid 27% year-over-year increase but still a 4.48% negative surprise against the Wall Street consensus of $1.34 billion. On the bottom line, earnings per share were $0.66, topping the $0.63 estimate. That's a 5% beat, but it wasn't enough to offset the top-line disappointment.

This is a textbook "sell the news" dynamic. The market had baked in expectations for continued robust revenue acceleration. The crypto weakness, which saw revenue from those transactions fall 38% year over year, was a known headwind, but its impact appears to have been more severe than anticipated. The beat on earnings, while positive, was seen as secondary. The expectation gap was wide on the top line, and that's where the stock punished the company.

Decoding the Drivers: Where Growth Was Priced In and Where It Wasn't

The revenue miss wasn't a surprise across the board; it was a story of specific segments meeting, exceeding, or falling short of expectations. The market had priced in a certain trajectory, and the actual print revealed where that trajectory diverged.

The positive surprise came from the core trading engine. Transaction-based revenue rose 15% to $776 million, driven by strength in options and equities. This beat was a clear positive, showing that the platform's primary business was still expanding. More specifically, options revenue jumped 41% and equities revenue grew 54%, indicating sustained user engagement in these areas. This strength was a known driver, but its magnitude appears to have been underestimated by some analysts, contributing to the overall beat on the top line.

The major headwind, however, was the crypto slump. Cryptocurrency revenue declined 38% to $221 million. This was a known vulnerability, but its impact was more severe than priced in. The market had likely anticipated a slowdown, but the depth of the drop in a key revenue stream was the primary reason the total print fell short of the $1.34 billion consensus. It's a classic case where a known risk materialized with greater force than expected.

Then there was the bright spot that didn't matter enough. Robinhood Gold subscribers grew 58% year-over-year to a record 4.2 million. That's a massive positive surprise for the company's subscription push, showing strong adoption of its premium offering. Yet, as the evidence shows, this growth in other revenue only partially offset the crypto decline. The sheer scale of the crypto drop overwhelmed the gains from Gold, leaving the overall revenue figure below expectations.

In essence, the report was a mixed bag of expectations met and exceeded. The core trading strength and Gold growth were positive surprises, but they were insufficient to close the gap created by the crypto revenue collapse. The market had priced in a smoother ride, and the crypto miss was the unexpected pothole that caused the stumble.

The Broader Financial Picture: Strength in Profitability and Deposits

Zooming out from the quarterly revenue miss, the longer-term financial picture reveals a company with deep structural strength and a growing customer base. These metrics show the underlying engine of growth and profitability, providing a foundation that can weather near-term volatility.

The most striking number is the full-year record. For 2025, total revenue reached $4.5 billion, a 52% year-over-year increase. That's the second consecutive year of 50%+ growth, demonstrating a powerful, multi-year expansion. More importantly, this growth is being converted into exceptional profitability. The company's adjusted EBITDA margin hit 56%, with incremental margins above 70% for the third year in a row. This high-profitability model means each new dollar of revenue is flowing to the bottom line at an impressive clip, a key advantage for scaling.

Customer trust is the fuel for this engine, and the deposit numbers are a clear indicator. Robinhood posted record net deposits of $68 billion for the year, a 35% increase. This includes a strong $16 billion in the fourth quarter alone. That kind of sustained inflow shows customers are not just trading; they are building long-term relationships and committing capital to the platform. It's a vote of confidence that supports the growth in total platform assets, which ballooned nearly 70% to $324 billion.

This combination of record revenue, soaring deposits, and elite margins paints a picture of a diversified financial superapp. The crypto slump hit one revenue stream, but the strength in transaction-based revenue, interest income, and the explosive growth of Robinhood Gold show the company is no longer reliant on a single product. The expectation gap for Q4 was real, but the broader trajectory of profitability and customer engagement suggests this is a temporary stumble in a longer, upward climb.

Catalysts and Risks: What's Priced In for 2026?

The market has now priced in a more cautious view of crypto's near-term contribution. With the Q4 miss and the broader sector weakness, investors are watching for two critical paths forward: whether the company can navigate the continued headwind, and if new initiatives can close the expectation gap.

The immediate risk is clear. Continued crypto market weakness remains a direct threat to revenue, as seen with rival Coinbase. The evidence shows crypto revenue fell 38% year over year to $221 million in Q4. While Robinhood's broader business is more balanced, this segment is still a meaningful part of the mix. Any further downturn in digital asset prices could pressure transaction-based revenue and delay the full recovery of this stream.

On the other side of the ledger, the company's guidance for 2026 sets a high bar. CFO Shiv Verma stated "2026 is off to a strong start," but the release did not detail specific financial targets. This vagueness is a known risk; without clear numbers, the market will have to rely on execution and qualitative promises. The company's own expense guidance, however, is concrete: adjusted operating expenses plus share-based compensation are expected to rise 18% year-over-year. This spending ramp signals aggressive investment in growth, which must be matched by revenue to maintain the stellar adjusted EBITDA margin of 56%.

The key catalysts to watch are the diversification plays. International expansion is a major lever, with the company noting three-quarters of a million customers outside the US and accelerated geographic plans. Success here could provide a new growth engine less tied to U.S. retail cycles. More immediately, product diversification is critical. The company highlighted the strong run rate of its Prediction Market business, with a first-year run rate above $300 million. Similarly, the explosive growth of Robinhood Gold Card customers, increasing fivefold in 2025, shows the potential of its premium offerings. These initiatives are the "great products" CEO Vlad Tenev referenced, and their execution will determine if the market's cautious view of crypto is offset by new sources of growth.

The bottom line is that the expectation gap for 2026 hinges on execution. The market has priced in a crypto slowdown. Now it needs to see proof that the company can ship its new products and scale internationally fast enough to drive profitable growth. The path forward is clear, but the stock will remain volatile until the company demonstrates it can consistently beat the whisper number on these new fronts.