Robinhood's Prediction Markets Just Outed Crypto: $156M vs. $100M Starts a Mix-Repricing Debate

Robinhood's Q2 revenue mix just flipped

This quarter changes the lens on HOOD.

Event contracts outearned cryptocurrency

In Q2, event contracts produced $156 million of revenue, ahead of cryptocurrency revenue of $100 million. That followed only $10 million in event contracts revenue a year earlier, while crypto revenue fell 38% year over year. The scale of the swing is large enough to make prediction markets look less like a novelty and more like a meaningful part of Robinhood's revenue mix.

The rest of the quarter was strong as well. Robinhood reported record revenue of $1.31 billion, diluted EPS of $0.62, and record net deposits of $22 billion. That does not prove prediction markets are now a permanent earnings pillar, but it does make the category hard to dismiss as a one-quarter fluke.

The valuation question is now straightforward: is Wall Street still valuing HOOD mostly through crypto and options, or starting to treat prediction markets as another meaningful monetization stream inside a broader platform?

Why prediction markets outsold crypto this quarter

Record trading activity drove the spike

The first driver was volume. Robinhood customers traded a record 13.6 billion event contracts in Q2, helping event contracts generate $156 million of revenue. That came after only $10 million in event contracts revenue a year earlier, while options revenue still grew to $342 million. The platform had both a fast-growing new category and an established user base that could absorb it.

Prediction markets also appear to respond differently to attention cycles than crypto. When major events, elections, or headline-driven volatility pick up, event contracts can create repeated trading activity around news. In Q2, that effect was large enough to change Robinhood's revenue mix.

Rothera gives Robinhood more control of the stack

The second shift was infrastructure. Robinhood began routing prediction-market trades through Kalshi before switching to its own exchange, Rothera, after it began accepting contracts on June 4. Since launch, Rothera has processed $3.5 billion in contracts. Owning more of the trade flow should give Robinhood greater control over the economics and distribution of prediction markets over time.

That still does not make prediction markets Robinhood's largest business. Options remained the bigger engine at $342 million of Q2 revenue. But the strategic point is clear: a newer category has become substantial while the company is still building its own infrastructure underneath it.

Is this durable, or just a very active quarter?

The bullish case is that Robinhood now controls more of the plumbing and has a new category that can compound as user habits and event calendars support it.

The bearish case is that Q2 was boosted by an unusually active news and sports calendar, so the spike may not translate directly into steady quarterly revenue forever.

For now, the cleanest way to frame it is as a meaningful mix shift that still needs follow-through.

What would make the rerating credible

The rerating becomes more credible if prediction markets keep looking like a durable income layer rather than a one-quarter shock. Robinhood now has 13 business lines at $100 million+ annualized revenue, which suggests a more diversified monetization stack than the stock has historically had.

The near-term proof point is simple: event contracts need to build from $104 million in Q1 revenue in the next quarter, not fall back to a post-spike low.

What to watch in Q3

• Event-contract revenue remains clearly ahead of cryptocurrency revenue.
• Rothera stays the live venue and continues processing meaningful contract volume.
• Robinhood still reports strong activity across equity, options, and event contracts rather than a broad slowdown.
• Cryptocurrency revenue stabilizes, so the recent mix flip looks less like a temporary weakness in one segment and a temporary strength in another.

If those signals hold, investors are likely to keep treating HOOD as a diversifying fintech platform rather than trading it mainly as a crypto-beta name.