Robinhood Markets Skyrocketed 2.96% – Is Its Crypto Gambit Paying Off?

Summary
• Robinhood's shares surged 175% this year, outpacing U.S. tech peers.
• Q2 revenue is projected to grow 33% to $914 million, with adjusted EPS expected at $0.31.
• Tokenized assets in Europe and blockchain plans fuel speculation ahead of earnings.

Robinhood Markets (HOOD) has surged 2.96% intraday, trading at $106.39 with a 13.5M volume. The rally reflects its transformation into a global crypto and fintech leader, with tokenized assets in Europe and a planned layer-2 blockchain. Investors are eyeing its Q2 earnings and regulatory scrutiny amid a $91B market cap.

Crypto Expansion and Tokenization Fuel Rally Amid Regulatory Scrutiny
Robinhood's 2.96% surge stems from its aggressive crypto and tokenization bets. Recent acquisitions of Bitstamp and WonderFi expanded its institutional-grade infrastructure, while tokenized shares of OpenAI and SpaceX in Europe signal a pivot to blockchain-based assets. The launch of 24/7 Ethereum and Solana staking, coupled with a layer-2 blockchain for real-world asset settlement, has attracted speculative retail and institutional demand. However, regulators like the Bank of Lithuania are seeking clarifications on tokenized products, creating a dual narrative of innovation and risk.

Brokerage Sector Mixed as Robinhood Outpaces Peers
The broader Investment Banking and Brokerage sector showed muted movement, with Charles Schwab (SCHW) up 0.2655%. Robinhood’s 2.96% gain highlights its divergence from traditional brokers, driven by crypto-driven transaction revenue growth and tokenization. While Schwab and Interactive Brokers focus on traditional equities, Robinhood’s crypto and blockchain initiatives have captured market imagination, albeit with regulatory uncertainty.

Capitalizing on HOOD’s Volatility: ETFs and Options for Q2 Earnings Play
• MACD: 6.32 (Bullish) vs. 7.10 (Signal Line)
• RSI: 63.18 (Neutral to Overbought)
• Bollinger Bands: $110.39 (Upper), $100.21 (Middle), $90.02 (Lower)
• 200D MA: $52.27 (Far Below)
• 30D MA: $93.83 (Near Support)

Robinhood’s 2.96% rally has pushed it closer to its 52W high of $113.44, with technical indicators suggesting short-term bullish momentum. The Defiance Daily Target 2X Long HOOD ETF (HOOX) offers leveraged exposure, up 5.91% today. Key levels to watch: $101.39 (30D support) and $110.39 (Bollinger Upper Band).

Top Options Picks:
• HOOD20250808C106:
- Type: Call
- Strike: $106
- Expiry: 2025-08-08
- IV: 84.22% (High Volatility)
- Delta: 0.5312 (Moderate Sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.5124 (Rapid Time Decay)
- Gamma: 0.0269 (Price Responsive)
- Turnover: 640,170
• HOOD20250808C107:
- Type: Call
- Strike: $107
- Expiry: 2025-08-08
- IV: 83.82% (High Volatility)
- Delta: 0.5041 (Moderate Sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.5015 (Rapid Time Decay)
- Gamma: 0.0271 (Price Responsive)
- Turnover: 515,688

HOOD20250808C106 offers a 17.82% leverage ratio and high gamma, ideal for a 5% upside (target $111.70) with a projected payoff of $5.70 per contract. HOOD20250808C107 provides a 19.41% leverage ratio and strong liquidity, with a 5% upside payoff of $4.70. Aggressive bulls may consider these calls into a breakout above $110.39.

Backtest Robinhood Markets Stock Performance
The backtest of HOOD's performance after an intraday surge of 3% indicates positive short-to-medium-term gains. The 3-Day win rate is 55.62%, the 10-Day win rate is 58.43%, and the 30-Day win rate is 57.23%, suggesting that the stock tends to perform well in the immediate aftermath of such events. The maximum return observed was 14.13% over 30 days, which implies that there is potential for significant price appreciation following the intraday surge.

Watch for $113.44 52W High Breakout – Robinhood’s Crypto Bet Could Define Earnings Week
Robinhood’s 2.96% rally reflects its crypto-driven momentum, but sustainability hinges on Q2 earnings and regulatory clarity. Key levels to monitor: $106.39 (current price), $110.39 (Bollinger Band), and $113.44 (52W high). The Charles Schwab (SCHW) sector leader’s 0.2655% gain underscores Robinhood’s divergence from traditional brokers. Investors should focus on a breakout above $110.39 for a bullish case, or a breakdown below $100.21 for a reversal. Aggressive traders may use HOOD20250808C106 for a high-gamma play, while long-term holders should watch regulatory developments post-earnings.