Robinhood (HOOD) Surges 10% on Landmark LedgerX Acquisition – What’s Next for Prediction Markets?

Summary
• Robinhood’s stock (HOOD) jumped 10.08% intraday to $127.22, driven by a 90% stake acquisition in LedgerX.
• The deal, with Susquehanna International Group, targets regulated prediction markets and derivatives trading.
• HOOD’s intraday high reached $128.31, while its low was $120.87, reflecting volatile retail and institutional flows.

Robinhood’s stock surged over 10% on Tuesday, fueled by a strategic acquisition of LedgerX, a former FTX-linked platform now rebranded as a regulated prediction-market exchange. The move signals a bold pivot into high-margin futures and derivatives, with analysts noting potential revenue diversification. The stock’s sharp rally, coupled with a 4.17% turnover rate, underscores investor optimism about Robinhood’s ability to leverage its retail user base for new fee streams.

Regulatory Push into Prediction Markets Ignites HOOD's Surge
Robinhood’s 10.08% intraday gain stems from its partnership with Susquehanna to acquire 90% of LedgerX, a CFTC-regulated platform previously linked to FTX. The acquisition positions Robinhood to launch a futures and derivatives exchange by early 2026, unlocking recurring, high-margin revenue from prediction markets. The deal’s regulatory clarity—unlike FTX’s collapse—has reassured investors, while the platform’s existing infrastructure reduces execution risks. Analysts at Piper Sandler called the move “quite positive,” noting that prediction markets could yield mid-eight-figure incremental revenue if adoption accelerates. The stock’s rally also reflects retail and institutional flows reacting to the news, with volume spiking as traders repositioned for upside scenarios.

Capital Markets Sector Rally as Robinhood Leads Prediction Market Charge
The Capital Markets sector saw mixed momentum, with CME Group (CME) rising 1.42% as a sector leader. However, Robinhood’s 10.08% surge outpaced peers, driven by its unique retail user base and mobile-first distribution. Unlike traditional exchanges like CME, Robinhood’s strategy targets retail-driven prediction markets, a niche with lower competition but higher regulatory scrutiny. The sector’s broader performance remains cautious, with leveraged ETFs like XLF up 0.75%, but HOOD’s move highlights its potential to disrupt fee-based revenue models.

Options Playbook: High-Leverage Calls and Strategic Puts for HOOD's Volatile Outlook
• RSI: 32.06 (oversold)
• MACD: -6.25 (bearish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: Upper $153.58, Middle $127.54, Lower $101.497
• 200D MA: $88.02 (far below current price)

Robinhood’s technicals suggest a short-term bearish trend amid a long-term ranging pattern. Key support lies at $126.65 (30D support), while resistance is near $127.54 (middle Bollinger Band). The stock’s 10.08% surge has pushed it closer to the upper Bollinger Band, indicating potential for a pullback. For traders, the focus is on high-leverage options with favorable risk-reward profiles. The options chain reveals two standout contracts:

• HOOD20251205C125 (Call):
- Strike: $125, Expiry: 2025-12-05
- IV: 55.82% (moderate), Delta: 0.605, Theta: -0.5117, Gamma: 0.0327, Turnover: $3.38M
- Payoff (5% upside): $127.22 → $133.58 → max(0, $133.58 - $125) = $8.58 per contract
- This call offers high leverage (21.06%) and strong gamma, ideal for a continuation of the bullish move.

• HOOD20251205P125 (Put):
- Strike: $125, Expiry: 2025-12-05
- IV: 56.77% (moderate), Delta: -0.396, Theta: -0.0142, Gamma: 0.0322, Turnover: $1.06M
- Payoff (5% downside): $127.22 → $120.86 → max(0, $125 - $120.86) = $4.14 per contract
- This put provides downside protection with a 35.90% leverage ratio, balancing risk in a volatile environment.

Aggressive bulls should consider HOOD20251205C125 into a break above $127.54, while cautious traders may hedge with HOOD20251205P125 to cap losses if regulatory headwinds emerge.

Backtest Robinhood Markets Stock Performance
The back-test is complete. Below you will find an interactive module that lets you explore all of the statistics, equity curve and trade list for the “10 % Surge Momentum” strategy on Robinhood Markets (HOOD) from January 2022 through 26 Nov 2025.Key observations (high-level only, details are in the module):• The strategy produced a positive absolute and annualised return, but at the cost of a sizeable draw-down. • Risk controls (-8 % stop-loss / +12 % take-profit) helped cap tail risk, yet did not fully eliminate volatility.Parameter notes:• Because you did not specify exit rules, I auto-filled a conventional 12 % take-profit and 8 % stop-loss to frame a reasonable reward-to-risk ratio. • The buy signal is triggered on the first close that is at least 10 % above the previous close (close-to-close “intraday” surge).You can drill into every metric via the tool below.Feel free to review the interactive results, and let me know if you’d like to adjust any parameters, test alternative exit rules, or extend the analysis.

Bullish Breakout or Regulatory Hurdles? Act Now on HOOD's Prediction Market Gambit
Robinhood’s 10.08% surge reflects investor confidence in its prediction-market pivot, but sustainability hinges on regulatory approval and execution risks. The stock’s proximity to the upper Bollinger Band ($153.58) and 52W high ($153.86) suggests a potential pullback if the $127.54 resistance fails. Sector leader CME’s 1.42% gain highlights broader capital markets optimism, but Robinhood’s unique retail-driven model could diverge. Act now: Buy HOOD20251205C125 for upside potential or HOOD20251205P125 for downside protection, while monitoring CME’s performance as a sector barometer.