Robinhood Drops 3.07% Amid Technical Signals Of Potential Reversal

Robinhood Markets (HOOD) declined by 3.07% in the most recent trading session, closing at 100.84 after trading between 97.9 and 101.9 on elevated volume of 40.8 million shares. This analysis evaluates key technical signals based on the one-year price history.
Candlestick Theory
The September 2 session formed a hammer-like pattern with a long lower wick (97.9 low to 100.84 close), signaling buying interest near the 98.00 psychological support. This level aligns with the August 4 swing low of 97.15. Resistance is observed at 104.40 (August 29 high), reinforced by the 23.6% Fibonacci level at 104.83. A confirmed hammer close above 101.90 may indicate short-term bullish reversal potential.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day moving average (approximately 108) resides above the current price (100.84), suggesting near-term bearish pressure. However, the 100-day MA (~89) and 200-day MA (~70) slope upward with price trading above both, confirming the broader uptrend remains intact. The current dip below the 50-day MA may represent a bull market pullback rather than a structural reversal.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram shows bearish momentum, with the MACD line (-1.2 estimate) below its signal line and negative divergence preceding the recent decline. KDJ metrics reflect oversold conditions: The 9-day RSV of 21 and stochastic values (K=28, D=32, J=20) near multi-week lows suggest waning downward momentum. A bullish KDJ crossover (K above D) would reinforce reversal potential.
Bollinger Bands
Price touched the lower Bollinger Band (97.00) on September 2 during its intraday dip to 97.9, while the 20-day MA (107) acts as resistance. The 5-point bandwidth expansion (2σ) reflects elevated volatility, typically preceding directional resolution. A rebound above 102.50 could trigger a volatility contraction and test the middle band.
Volume-Price Relationship
Recent distribution signals emerged: The August 27 breakdown (-5.40%) occurred on 35.9M shares (above 30-day average), while the September 2 selling climax at 97.9 saw 40.8M shares—confirming capitulation. However, the intraday recovery to 100.84 on sustained volume suggests accumulation at support. Sustained buying above 102 on >35M shares is needed to validate basing action.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (26.5 estimated) has entered oversold territory (<30) for the first time since June. Historically, RSI readings below 30 preceded rallies (e.g., 24.8 on May 14 preceded a 15% surge). While consistent with bearish exhaustion, traders should await bullish divergence or a reversal above 40 to signal momentum shift.
Fibonacci Retracement
Using the 63.17 low (May 23) and 117.70 high (August 12), key retracement levels are 104.83 (23.6%), 96.87 (38.2%), and 90.44 (50%). The recent 97.9 low tested the 38.2% support zone, with recovery momentum suggesting this Fibonacci level may anchor a potential reversal. A sustained break below 96.87 would expose the 50% retracement.
Confluence exists at 98.00–97.15, where hammer candlestick support, Bollinger lower band (97.00), Fibonacci 38.2% level (96.87), and oversold RSI/KDJ readings align to suggest downside exhaustion. Divergence remains between bearish MACD momentum and other reversal signals. While near-term bounces appear probable, a decisive close above the 104.40–104.83 resistance zone is required to invalidate the immediate downtrend.