Robinhood's 2026 Exchange Aims to Democratize Prediction Markets for Retail Traders

Robinhood Markets Inc. is set to launch a futures and derivatives exchange in 2026, marking a significant expansion into prediction markets, a rapidly growing segment of the financial ecosystem. The move follows the platform's acquisition of MIAX Derivatives Exchange (MIAXdx), a CFTC-licensed derivatives clearing organization and swap execution facility, from Miami International Holdings. Under the terms of the agreement, Robinhood will control 90% of MIAXdx, with Miami International retaining a 10% stake, while Susquehanna International Group will serve as the day-one liquidity provider. The transaction, expected to close in early 2026, aligns with Robinhood's strategy to deepen its investment in prediction markets, which have become one of its fastest-growing revenue drivers.

Since launching its prediction markets in March 2025 in partnership with Kalshi, Robinhood has seen over nine billion contracts traded by more than one million users. The platform's general manager of futures and international, JB Mackenzie, highlighted strong customer demand for these products, emphasizing plans to leverage infrastructure investments to enhance user experience and introduce innovative offerings. The derivatives exchange will position Robinhood to offer fully collateralized futures, options on futures, and swaps, leveraging MIAXdx's regulatory approvals from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The surge in prediction market interest is evident across the industry, with platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket recording substantial trading volumes. Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated platform, reported $4.47 billion in 30-day trading volume as of late 2025, while Polymarket, a crypto-based competitor, saw $3.58 billion over the same period. Robinhood's entry into this space coincides with broader crypto exchanges expanding their offerings, including Crypto.com's integration with Trump Media and Gemini's plans for a "super app" featuring prediction markets. According to recent data leaks, Coinbase has been linked to internal developments for a similar platform.

The expansion underscores a shift in how traditional and crypto-native platforms are capitalizing on prediction markets' potential to democratize speculative trading. By 2026, Robinhood aims to solidify its position as a key player in this niche, with the MIAXdx acquisition providing the regulatory and operational framework to scale its ambitions. As Mackenzie noted, the infrastructure investment will enable the platform to "deliver an even better experience" for users, positioning Robinhood to compete with established players while attracting new participants to the evolving market.