RLCBTC Market Overview: A 24-Hour Downtrend Amid High Volatility and Strong Turnover

• Price opened at 1.092e-05, peaked at 1.115e-05, and closed at 1.050e-05
• Momentum shifted from bullish to bearish with RSI dropping below 50
• Volatility expanded with Bollinger Band widening during early trade
• Downtrend confirmed by 15-min and daily moving averages
• Notional turnover surged over $13.5k, but volume diverged near lows

Price Action and Open/Close Summary

iExec RLC/Bitcoin (RLCBTC) opened at 1.092e-05 on September 13, 2025, at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 1.115e-05, and closed at 1.050e-05 at 12:00 ET the following day. The 24-hour volume was 57,525.8 units, translating to a notional turnover of approximately $6.09 (based on BTC value). The pair appears to have entered a bearish trend, with strong selling pressure emerging after a volatile midday move.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart displayed a strong bearish bias after the formation of a dark cloud cover pattern near 1.111e-05 on the 21:30 candle. A significant breakdown occurred below the 1.104e-05 level, which acted as a key resistance-turned-support during the initial session. A low of 1.047e-05 marked a potential short-term support area, where price found temporary buying interest late in the day.

Bullish reversal patterns such as a hammer were observed near 1.077e-05, but failed to trigger a strong bounce. The 1.084e-05 level appears to have become a short-term resistance.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages trended lower throughout the day, indicating sustained bearish momentum. Price closed below both, reinforcing the downtrend. On the daily chart, the 50- and 200-period moving averages crossed below the 100-period line, forming a death cross scenario that may signal further weakness in the near term.

MACD and RSI

The MACD crossed below the zero line early in the session and maintained a bearish divergence throughout the day. The histogram showed a steady decline, supporting the notion that bearish momentum was accelerating. Meanwhile, the RSI dropped from 64 to 34, indicating oversold conditions and potential near-term bounce, though the strength of this signal is reduced in the context of a strong downtrend.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility increased sharply after 17:00 ET as the Bollinger Bands widened. Price remained within the bands for most of the session but touched the lower band several times, notably at 1.077e-05 and 1.047e-05. This suggests that while the market was volatile, it remained contained within a defined range. A contraction in the bands before the large move may have signaled a period of consolidation before the breakout.

Volume and Turnover

Volume surged significantly during the breakdown of key levels, particularly after 21:30 ET, with over 6,508 units traded in a single candle. Notional turnover spiked above $2,700 during that same period. However, volume dried up around the 1.047e-05 level, despite a sharp price drop, suggesting weak conviction in the move lower. A divergence between price and volume may hint at potential exhaustion or a possible countertrend bounce.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels derived from the 1.082e-05 to 1.115e-05 swing included 1.101e-05 (38.2%) and 1.096e-05 (61.8%). Price found rejection at both levels, reinforcing their role as resistance. On the larger daily chart, the 1.050e-05 level is near the 38.2% retracement of a broader bullish move from earlier in the week, which may act as a critical support ahead.

Backtest Hypothesis

Based on the technical indicators used in this analysis, a potential backtesting strategy would involve a short-biased setup using the 20-period EMA as a trigger and RSI below 40 as a confirmation for entry. Stop-loss levels could be set above key Fibonacci resistances such as 1.096e-05, while take-profit targets may be aligned with the 1.072e-05 and 1.066e-05 levels. This approach aligns with the observed bearish momentum and overbought RSI reversal, though traders must remain cautious of divergence signs and sudden volatility shifts.