Rivian: Revenue Surpasses Expectations, Earnings Missed, Sequential Delivery Rebound in Q2'25

Rivian Automotive surpassed revenue estimates in Q2 but missed on earnings, causing pressure on its share price. Despite this, the company saw a sequential rebound in deliveries and made progress in improving unit economics.

Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ: RIVN) reported mixed financial results for its second quarter, with revenue surpassing estimates but earnings falling short, causing a dip in its share price. Despite the setback, the company showed signs of progress in unit economics and delivery performance.

Rivian's revenue for the second quarter rose 13% year-over-year to $1.3 billion, beating analysts' expectations. However, the company reported an adjusted loss of $0.97 per share, missing the consensus estimate of $0.80 per share. The net loss was an improvement over the prior year's $1.5 billion, but the adjusted earnings per share were worse than anticipated [1].

The company's gross loss for the quarter was $206 million, a significant improvement from the prior year's $451 million. Rivian also lowered its adjusted EBITDA loss forecast for the full year, expecting it to be between $2 billion and $2.5 billion, compared to the previous forecast of between $1.7 billion and $1.9 billion [1].

One notable challenge for Rivian is the loss of regulatory credit sales, a significant portion of its business. The administration's removal of the emissions penalty has eliminated the incentive for automakers to purchase zero-emission credits. Rivian expects total 2025 regulatory credit sales to be approximately $160 million, down from its prior outlook of $300 million [1].

Despite these challenges, Rivian saw a sequential rebound in deliveries, with a 23% increase in deliveries compared to the previous quarter. The company delivered a total of 10,661 electric vehicles in the second quarter, marking a 23% sequential increase in deliveries [2]. This improvement in deliveries, along with the confirmed delivery guidance for the fiscal year 2025, suggests that Rivian is making progress in its unit economics.

Rivian's gross loss per-unit produced in the second quarter was approximately $34,500, a significant improvement from the prior year's $47,000 per-unit. This cost-per-unit advantage is mainly attributable to Rivian's larger production volume compared to competitors like Lucid (LCID), which reported a gross loss per-unit of production of $70,500 [2].

The company's strong liquidity position, with over $7.5 billion in cash and short-term investments, provides a solid foundation for future growth and limits investment risks. Rivian's valuation, at a forward price-to-revenue ratio of 2.1X based on FY 2026 consensus estimates, makes its shares significantly cheaper than Tesla (TSLA), which is trading at a P/S ratio of 9.9X [2].

In conclusion, while Rivian faced setbacks in earnings and regulatory credit sales, the company showed progress in unit economics and delivery performance. The upcoming launch of the R2 electric SUV and R3 models in the first half of 2026 is expected to drive future growth and potentially offset the losses from regulatory credit sales.

References:
[1] https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/rivian-investors-face-real-setback
[2] https://seekingalpha.com/article/4813820-rivian-improving-unit-economics