Rivian Automotive Stock Plunges 12.51% on Weak Earnings Outlook, Revenue Contraction

The share price fell to its lowest level since November 2025 today, with an intraday decline of 3.60%.

Rivian Automotive’s stock has now fallen for nine consecutive trading days, dropping 12.51% over that period. The decline follows a weak earnings forecast, with analysts expecting a quarterly loss of -$0.69 per share and $1.26 billion in revenue for February 2026. This marks a 32.7% year-over-year EPS drop and a 27.4% revenue contraction. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the full fiscal year predicts an EPS of -$2.63 and $5.36 billion in revenue, highlighting ongoing profitability challenges. Analysts have downgraded Rivian’s EPS outlook by 0.32% in the past month, contributing to its current Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold), which signals limited near-term upside potential.

Strategic and macroeconomic factors further weigh on investor sentiment. Rivian’s Q3 2025 results, while exceeding revenue and delivery expectations, revealed a $24 million gross profit and an adjusted EBITDA loss of $2.0–2.25 billion for 2025. The company’s cash reserves of $7.1 billion must now offset $1.8–1.9 billion in 2025 capital expenditures, raising concerns about free cash flow sustainability. The upcoming R2 vehicle launch in early 2026 and expiring Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) tax credits add uncertainty, as Rivian seeks to achieve positive unit economics by late 2026. Meanwhile, the Automotive - Domestic industry’s Zacks Rank of 72 (top 30%) offers some sectoral insulation, but Rivian’s premium SUV positioning and competition from legacy automakers and EV startups remain key risks.