Riskified Ltd.'s 2026 Outlook Contradicts Prior Plans: Payments Growth Normalization, Shifting Margin Targets, and Agentic Commerce Uncertainty

Date of Call: Mar 4, 2026

Financials Results

• Revenue: Q4: $99.3M, up 6% YOY. Full year: $344.6M, up 5% YOY.
• EPS: Non-GAAP diluted net profit per share of $0.20, up 18% in 2025.
• Gross Margin: Not explicitly provided. Non-GAAP gross profit of $57.3M in Q4, up 16% YOY.
• Operating Margin: Not explicitly provided. Adjusted EBITDA margin of 18% in Q4.

Guidance:

• Revenue for 2026 expected to be between $372M and $384M, representing 8% to 11% growth YOY, with net dollar retention similar to 2025.
• Non-GAAP gross profit growth expected to be 7% to 12% for the full year, with each quarter near 10% growth at the midpoint.
• Adjusted EBITDA for 2026 expected to be between $26M and $34M, representing a margin of 8%, inclusive of a ~400 bps FX headwind.
• Free cash flow expected to be approximately $40M in 2026, up at least 20% from 2025.
• Non-GAAP diluted net profit per share expected to be $0.20, representing 18% growth in 2025.

Business Commentary:

Record Revenue and Profitability:

• Riskified reported record revenue of $99.3 million for Q4, up 16% year-over-year, and achieved GAAP profitability for the first time.
• The growth was driven by strong performance in the travel vertical and new business wins, particularly in money transfer and payments.

Gross Profit and Margin Expansion:

• The company's gross profit reached $57.3 million in Q4, up 16% year-over-year, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 18%.
• Improvements in core machine learning models and performance in the money transfer and payments category contributed to this growth.

Geographic and Vertical Expansion:

• Non-U.S. regions collectively grew 22% year-over-year, with APAC and LATAM being key regions of outperformance.
• The expansion into new geographic areas and growth in verticals like payments and money transfer drove this trend.

AI and Fraud Prevention:

• Riskified is leveraging AI to combat increasing fraud complexities, with approximately 50% increase in merchants using more than one product.
• The rise in fraud losses and the need for sophisticated fraud prevention solutions are driving the adoption of Riskified's platform.

Share Repurchase and Financial Strategy:

• Riskified repurchased shares representing approximately 2/3 of its current enterprise value and announced an additional $75 million share repurchase program.
• This strategy is supported by strong free cash flow expectations and a disciplined capital allocation approach.

Sentiment Analysis:

Overall Tone: Positive

• Statements include: 'We ended the year strong, and this momentum positions us for continued success in 2026.' 'Our fourth quarter... represented strong year-over-year growth of 16% and our adjusted EBITDA... translated to a margin of 18%. This quarterly amount alone exceeded our full year adjusted EBITDA of $17.2 million in '24.' 'I'm encouraged about the progress that we have made on achieving profitability on both GAAP and adjusted EBITDA basis.' 'I'm excited about the continuous expansion and enhancement of our agentic commerce offering.'

Q&A:

• Question from Terrell Tillman (Truist Securities): As it relates to agentic commerce, can you quantify any early GMV from the two different scenarios, what would the monetization or take rate look like, and how many merchants are you actively working with?
  Response: Early GMV from general purpose LLMs is very small with higher risk traffic and likely higher take rates initially. Merchant native AI agents are more advanced; Riskified provides a risk intelligence layer for financial decisions. Over 50 publicly traded merchants are engaged in discussions about their agentic commerce strategies.

• Question from Terrell Tillman (Truist Securities): Do you see the outsized growth in the money transfer and payments category continuing in your guide for '26?
  Response: Money transfer and payments was a strong category; growth is expected to continue but will normalize in terms of total growth contribution.

• Question from Ryan Tomasello (KBW): How do you think about the potential for rising adoption of agentic commerce to structurally impact fraud levels, and thoughts on second order impacts like agents using alternative payments?
  Response: Agentic commerce increases complexity and fraud risk across the customer journey, including checkout and post-checkout flows, leading to a net increase in fraud at this early stage, especially with general purpose LLMs. Alternative payments like stable coins may see adoption in specific industries but cards remain dominant overall.

• Question from Ryan Tomasello (KBW): Can you provide an update on the mid-market expansion strategy and its role in 2026 growth?
  Response: Mid-market expansion is not expected within the current guidance but presents potential upside as automated modeling capabilities allow for a scaled referral strategy.

• Question from William Nance (Goldman Sachs): What is the status on integrating into the latest agentic protocols, and what is the value of data from those protocols for fraud detection?
  Response: Riskified supports a wide range of protocols (e.g., AI agent protocol, AWS marketplace, Google A2A) but expects the agentic ecosystem to remain fragmented, requiring optimization between various protocols.

• Question from William Nance (Goldman Sachs): Could you update on the FX headwind and major currency exposures?
  Response: The FX headwind is approximately 400 bps (~$14M) to adjusted EBITDA, primarily due to the appreciation of the Israeli shekel against the U.S. dollar, impacting expenses. On a constant currency basis, expenses are expected to be flat year-over-year.

• Question from Cristopher Kennedy (William Blair): What is the opportunity for newer products (Policy Protect, Account Secure, Dispute Resolve) in 2026?
  Response: Revenue from these products is expected to be between $15M and $20M in 2026, driven by increased demand due to growing fraud complexity across various channels and parts of the shopping experience.

• Question from Cristopher Kennedy (William Blair): What drove the improvement in the 2024 cohort's CTB ratio?
  Response: Improvement was driven by strong performance in the money transfer and payments category, which serves as a solid base for ongoing optimization of new merchants in the pipeline.

• Question from Timothy Chiodo (UBS): Are Riskified's services used in addition to or instead of value-added services from card networks?
  Response: Riskified's services are distinct and not directly comparable to card network offerings, covering a broader spectrum including data features, modern machine learning fraud prevention, policy and dispute products, and support for ACH, crypto, and agentic checkout.

• Question from Timothy Chiodo (UBS): Do you expect the card mix within the agentic channel to differ from traditional e-commerce?
  Response: In most categories, card mix is not expected to change significantly. Cards remain dominant due to consumer preference for rewards and low interchange fees. Alternative payments may see increased adoption in specific industries like remittances or brokerages.

• Question from Reginald Smith (JPMorgan): How will pricing for agentic commerce roll out, and how are you managing the lack of historical data on this new surface?
  Response: Pricing is flexible initially, with merchants open to higher fees due to increased fraud risk and small absolute dollar amounts. Riskified adapts quickly by learning new fraud patterns in real-time across the network and deploying updates to the broader system.

• Question from Reginald Smith (JPMorgan): Is there any FX benefit to GMV growth in 2026?
  Response: FX impact on revenue is minor, potentially less than 0.5% from the euro, and is already incorporated into projections. The main FX impact is on expenses due to the Israeli shekel's strengthening against the dollar.

• Question from Clark Wright (D.A. Davidson): What does the shift to focusing on gross profit growth versus revenue growth mean for go-to-market and risk tolerance?
  Response: The focus is on gross profit dollar growth due to increased demand for bundled products with different margin profiles. Sales targeting and commission structures are being aligned to prioritize this.

• Question from Clark Wright (D.A. Davidson): What is the penetration rate for non-chargeback guarantee products and assumptions for the 2026 guide?
  Response: Adoption of these products increased by around 50% in 2025. Revenue from Policy Protect, Account Secure, and Dispute Resolve is expected to grow to $15M-$20M in 2026, driven by growing merchant demand to address fraud complexity.

Contradiction Point 1

Growth Outlook for Money Transfer & Payments Category

Contradiction on whether the category's growth is expected to normalize or remain a major driver.

Terrell Tillman (Truist Securities) - Terrell Tillman (Truist Securities)

20260304-2025 Q4: The money transfer and payments category was a major growth driver in 2025. For 2026, the company expects the category to continue growing but at a more normalized rate relative to the total growth. - Aglika Dotcheva(CFO)

Will the outsized growth in money transfer and payments persist in 2026 compared to other end markets? - Connor Passarella (Truist Securities, Inc.)

2025Q3: Focus will be on specific large verticals where the product is a good fit, expanding product offerings (like Policy Suite, CPMS), geographic expansion, and exploring mid-market distribution and partnerships. These factors are being considered in the 2026 planning cycle. - Eido Gal(CEO)

Contradiction Point 2

Expected Trajectory for Agentic Commerce Transaction Volume

Contradiction on whether agentic transaction volume is expected to grow significantly or remain minimal.

Terrell Tillman (Truist Securities) - Terrell Tillman (Truist Securities)

20260304-2025 Q4: Merchants are still in a preparatory stage, and actual transactional traffic is not yet significant. - Eido Gal(CEO)

Can you quantify early GMV, monetization/take rates, and the number of active merchants in agentic commerce scenarios involving merchant-native AI agents and general-purpose LLMs? - Unknown Analyst (KBW, for Ryan Tomasello)

2025Q3: Yes, merchants are facing complexity in adapting to Agentic commerce, and Riskified's capabilities... are helping from a conversation and new business perspective, though current Agentic transactions are still a handful. - Eido Gal(CEO)

Contradiction Point 3

Company's Margin Target Timeline

Contradiction on the expected timing for achieving a 50% gross profit margin.

Clark Wright (D.A. Davidson) - Clark Wright (D.A. Davidson)

20260304-2025 Q4: The focus is on driving gross profit dollar growth, which is being reflected in sales targeting and commission structures. - Eido Gal(CEO)

How does the shift from revenue growth to gross profit growth impact go-to-market strategies and risk tolerance for specific product categories? - Reginald Smith (JPMorgan Chase & Co.)

2025Q3: The company is proud of the progress made toward its 50% margin target for Q4 2025 and continues to plan for double-digit growth in 2026. The 15% margin target may be pushed out by a few quarters due to merchant events in 2024... - Eido Gal(CEO)

Contradiction Point 4

Impact and Positioning in Agentic Commerce

Contradiction on whether agentic commerce is a net benefit for fraud risk detection.

Ryan Tomasello (KBW) - Ryan Tomasello (KBW)

20260304-2025 Q4: Agentic commerce adds significant complexity... which is a net benefit to fraud risk and is contributing to an overall increase in fraud losses. - Eido Gal(CEO)

How might the rising adoption of agentic commerce and the use of agentic AI agents with alternative payments, such as stablecoins, structurally impact fraud levels and the system's overall structure long-term? - Terrell Tillman (Truist Securities)

2025Q2: The fast-developing space is a net benefit, opening up new budget opportunities and enabling more conversations... - Eido Gal(CEO)

Contradiction Point 5

Mid-Market Expansion Strategy and Timeline

Contradiction on when mid-market expansion will become a significant growth driver.

Ryan Tomasello (KBW) - Ryan Tomasello (KBW)

20260304-2025 Q4: This is not currently included in the 2026 guidance but would represent upside if accelerated. - Eido Gal(CEO)

What is the current status of the mid-market expansion strategy and its impact on 2026 growth and broader investment plans? - Ryan Tomasello (KBW)

2025Q1: Expansion into the mid-market and further downstream is seen as a later-year opportunity. - Eido Gal(CEO)