Rising Unrest, Tightening Borders: The Investment Case for Security Services in an Era of Policy Conflict

The United States is navigating an era of heightened civil unrest, polarized immigration policies, and escalating federal-state tensions. From immigration rights demonstrations to far-right extremism, the landscape of public safety is shifting. Meanwhile, businesses and governments are scrambling to protect assets, infrastructure, and communities. This dynamic has created a clear demand for both private security services and public safety infrastructure, positioning these sectors as long-term investment opportunities.

The Unrest-Driven Surge in Private Security Demand

Recent data paints a stark picture: immigration-related protests in the U.S. surged to 27% of all demonstrations by March 2025, with 97% of events remaining peaceful. Yet the 3% of violent incidents—like car-ramming attacks in Texas and Arizona—highlight a growing risk of confrontation. These incidents, often amplified by far-right groups, are driving businesses to rethink risk management.

The private security market is responding. Companies in sectors like retail, critical infrastructure, and transportation are prioritizing business continuity planning and property protection. According to Allianz Commercial, over 50% of global firms now list strikes, riots, and civil commotion (SRCC) as their top operational risks, surpassing even cyberattacks. Insurers are capitalizing, with standalone political violence policies—often covering protest-related disruptions—seeing rising demand.

Investment Takeaway: Companies offering physical security services, such as armed patrols, access control systems, and crisis management tools, stand to benefit. Look for firms with contracts tied to high-risk sectors like retail (warehouses, distribution centers) or energy (pipelines, refineries).

The Federal Playbook: Public Safety Infrastructure Growth

While private firms lead in immediate risk mitigation, the federal government is ramping up public investments. The Department of Homeland Security's FY2025 budget highlights key areas:

1. Critical Infrastructure Protection: The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) has conducted 1,000+ physical security assessments since 2023, targeting vulnerabilities in utilities, transportation hubs, and public gathering places.
2. Nonprofit Security Grants: Over $450 million was allocated in 2024 to protect high-risk nonprofits, including places of worship and universities.
3. Counterterrorism Funding: The Targeted Violence and Terrorism Prevention (TVTP) program distributed $18 million in 2024 to community organizations combating radicalization.

These initiatives reflect a broader strategy to decentralize security, empowering states and localities to address threats like far-right extremism.

Investment Takeaway: Infrastructure-focused firms with federal contracts—such as cybersecurity providers (e.g., Palo Alto Networks, FireEye) or firms supplying surveillance technology (e.g., FLIR Systems)—are well-positioned.

Risks and Considerations

The sector isn't without challenges. Far-right extremism remains the fastest-growing domestic threat, with over 100 incidents reported in 2024. Companies must navigate the fine line between security and civil liberties, particularly as policies like the Reforming Intelligence and Securing America Act (RISAA) expand surveillance powers.

Additionally, supply chain bottlenecks in security equipment (e.g., body cameras, armored vehicles) could limit growth if demand outpaces production. Investors should favor firms with diversified supply chains or partnerships with domestic manufacturers.

The Bottom Line: A Dual-Track Opportunity

The confluence of rising civil unrest, federal spending on public safety, and private-sector risk aversion creates a two-pronged investment thesis:
1. Private Security Services: Focus on firms with scalable solutions for high-risk industries.
2. Public Infrastructure Plays: Target companies involved in critical infrastructure protection or counterterrorism grants.

For long-term investors, the sector's resilience is undeniable. As the Allianz report notes, protest-driven losses now rival natural disasters, and businesses will keep paying to mitigate that risk.

In short, safety isn't a luxury—it's a necessity. And in an era of division, that necessity will keep investors in the security sector busy for years to come.