The Rise of Patient Capital: Why Nine Dean's Model is the Future of Value Creation

In an era defined by short-termism and quarterly earnings obsessions, a quiet revolution is reshaping the investment landscape. Firms like Nine Dean—pioneers of indefinite-lifespan holding companies—are redefining how capital is deployed, prioritizing long-term value over the traditional private equity (PE) playbook. The departure of Carlyle Group's Aren LeeKong, a stalwart of its $10 billion direct lending division, signals a seismic shift: investors are no longer content with the clockwork exits of legacy PE models. Instead, they're flocking to structures that marry flexibility with permanence, and the evidence is clear—patient capital is the new alpha.

The LeeKong Departure: A Canary in the Coal Mine

When LeeKong left Carlyle to pursue new ventures, it marked more than a leadership reshuffle. As head of direct lending, he oversaw a division that grew from $2 billion to $10 billion in eight years—a testament to the demand for capital that doesn't force quick flips. Carlyle's pivot under CEO Harvey Schwartz toward credit and operational excellence underscores the writing on the wall: traditional PE's reliance on 10-year fund cycles and exit pressures is becoming a liability. Investors now seek partners who can ride out volatility, not just chase liquidity events.

LeeKong's exit reflects a broader disillusionment with the “buy, fix, sell” cycle. Carlyle's Q4 2024 earnings slump—driven by a 24% drop in private equity proceeds—highlights the risks of relying on asset sales in a slowing market. Meanwhile, its credit division, now under Justin Plouffe, surged with 20% earnings growth, proving that patient capital strategies outperform in turbulent times.

Nine Dean's Infinite Game: How Indefinite Lifespans Win

While Carlyle adapts, Nine Dean operates in a different dimension. Its holding company structure, modeled after the Ford Foundation's anchor-investor approach, eliminates the tyranny of fund deadlines. By aligning with institutions like the Ford Foundation—which committed $1 billion over a decade to mission-related investments (MRIs)—Nine Dean avoids the pressure to “exit” and instead focuses on compounding value.

The Ford Foundation's role as an anchor investor exemplifies this shift. Its 2025 launch of the $5 million “Emerging Appalachian Investors Fund” (managed in partnership with RIIF Capital) isn't just philanthropy; it's a blueprint for patient capital. By funding student-led investment initiatives in underserved regions, the Foundation bets on decades-long economic multipliers—a strategy that traditional PE firms, constrained by fund timelines, would reject as too slow.

The Math of Perpetuity: Why Indefinite Lifespans Dominate

The advantage of Nine Dean's model is mathematical. Traditional PE funds, with their fixed lifespans, must optimize for peak exit valuations—a sprint, not a marathon. In contrast, indefinite-lifespan firms can let compounding do the heavy lifting. Consider this: a 6% annual return compounded over 30 years yields 6.4x capital—far beyond the 3–5x multiples typical of PE funds.

Carlyle's direct lending division, now a $10 billion engine of stability, mirrors this logic. Its focus on long-term loans to businesses—versus short-term buyouts—delivers steady cash flows, shielding investors from the volatility of rapid exits. Yet Nine Dean takes it further: without the pressure to return capital to LPs, it can reinvest in undervalued assets for decades, harvesting gains when markets reward patience.

The Bottom Line: Allocate to Perpetuity or Be Left Behind

The writing is on the wall. As Carlyle's struggles in 2024 reveal, firms clinging to outdated models will underperform. Investors must reallocate to structures like Nine Dean's, where indefinite lifespans and anchor investors like the Ford Foundation provide the oxygen to thrive in any cycle.

The data is irrefutable: patient capital strategies outperform. Carlyle's credit division alone grew 20% in a down quarter, while its PE arm floundered. The next decade belongs to those who think in generations, not quarters. Move capital now—before the trend becomes a tidal wave.

In a world racing toward the next quarterly report, Nine Dean's model isn't just innovative—it's inevitable. The clock is ticking. Act before the clock runs out.