The Rise of Onchain Prediction Markets: Phantom and Kalshi's Strategic Integration

The convergence of decentralized finance (DeFi) and prediction markets has reached a pivotal inflection point in 2025, driven by strategic integrations like Phantom and Kalshi's collaboration. This partnership, which embeds tokenized prediction markets directly into Phantom's 20 million-user wallet ecosystem, is not merely a product update-it is a paradigm shift. By enabling users to trade on real-world events (politics, sports, economics) using Solana (SOL) or CASH without leaving their wallets, Phantom and Kalshi have eliminated friction that once hindered mass adoption. This seamless integration, coupled with live price tracking, settlement notifications, and in-app social features, positions prediction markets as the next frontier in crypto's evolution according to reports.

Strategic Integration: A Frictionless Onramp to Prediction Markets

Phantom's integration of Kalshi's regulated infrastructure marks a critical step in democratizing access to prediction markets. Prior to this, users faced cumbersome onboarding processes, including creating separate accounts and transferring funds across platforms. Phantom's solution-allowing tokenized positions to be traded directly within the wallet-has unlocked a new user base. As Kalshi reported, sales increased 1000% from 2024. This surge reflects the power of removing barriers to entry: when prediction markets become as intuitive as token swaps, user growth follows.

The partnership also aligns with Phantom's broader vision to transform its wallet into a "comprehensive financial hub." CEO Brandon Millman emphasized that the goal is to make prediction markets "as intuitive as token swaps," a vision now materializing through features like in-app chat for real-time sentiment tracking according to CoinLaw. This social layer, combined with non-custodial trading, enhances both utility and engagement, creating a flywheel effect for user retention.

Onchain Activity: Scaling Liquidity and Privacy

Kalshi's migration to Solana in 2025 has further accelerated its growth. By leveraging Solana's high throughput and low fees, Kalshi now offers tokenized contracts that function similarly to traditional derivatives but with crypto-native advantages: instant settlement, anonymity, and access to the $3 trillion digital asset market according to Solana Floor. This onchain shift has also enabled strategic partnerships with liquidity providers like Jupiter and DFlow, which atomically execute trades via a deep liquidity layer according to Next Event Horizon.

The financial implications are staggering. Kalshi's tokenized markets have attracted $2 million in builder grants to incentivize third-party developers, while its $11 billion valuation post-Series E funding led by Paradigm underscores institutional confidence. Meanwhile, the broader prediction market sector has seen combined notional weekly volumes hit $2.3 billion in October 2025, with Kalshi and Polymarket dominating the space according to CF Benchmarks. These figures suggest that prediction markets are no longer niche-they are a mainstream asset class.

Institutional Endorsements and Regulatory Legitimacy

The legitimization of prediction markets is further reinforced by institutional backing and regulatory validation. Kalshi's CFTC-regulated infrastructure has attracted partnerships with entities like Google Finance, CNN, and the NHL according to CoinLaw, while the Coalition for Prediction Markets-launched by Kalshi, Crypto.com, and Coinbase-aims to establish federal frameworks for the sector according to Medium. This coalition, which includes Robinhood and Underdog, signals a coordinated effort to navigate regulatory hurdles and promote standardization.

Coinbase's upcoming prediction market launch, announced for December 2025, is another milestone. By integrating tokenized equities and prediction markets into a single platform, Coinbase is positioning itself as a "super app" for crypto users according to Defirate. Similarly, Polymarket's $2 billion funding round from Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) at a $9 billion valuation highlights the sector's appeal to traditional finance players according to Bloomberg Law. These moves are not speculative-they are strategic investments in a future where prediction markets serve as both a data source and a financial instrument.

Why Prediction Markets Are the Next Big Thing

The case for prediction markets as the next big thing in crypto and DeFi rests on three pillars: user adoption, liquidity, and regulatory progress.

1. User Adoption: Phantom's integration has brought prediction markets to 20 million users, with Kalshi's November 2025 volume ($5.8 billion) reflecting exponential growth according to Covers. The removal of onboarding friction has turned casual traders into active participants.
2. Liquidity: Solana's onchain infrastructure has unlocked access to crypto's liquidity pools, enabling prediction markets to scale beyond niche audiences. Kalshi's $27.9 billion in cumulative volume (Jan–Oct 2025) demonstrates the sector's capacity to absorb institutional capital according to Solana Floor.
3. Regulatory Progress: The Coalition for Prediction Markets and Kalshi's CFTC compliance are creating a framework for sustainable growth. As regulators adapt to this asset class, prediction markets will gain legitimacy akin to futures trading.

Conclusion: A New Financial Primitive

Prediction markets are no longer speculative experiments-they are a proven mechanism for aggregating information and allocating capital. Phantom and Kalshi's integration has demonstrated that user experience and regulatory compliance can coexist, paving the way for mass adoption. With $30 billion in projected 2025 volume and institutional backing from Paradigm, ICE, and Coinbase, this sector is poised to redefine how markets function in the digital age. For investors, the lesson is clear: prediction markets are not a side bet-they are a foundational asset class in the crypto-native economy.