The Rise of Agentic Commerce: How Walmart, Google, and OpenAI Are Redefining Retail AI

The retail landscape is undergoing a seismic shift as agentic commerce-where AI agents act autonomously on behalf of consumers and businesses-emerges as a transformative force. This evolution is not merely a technological upgrade but a redefinition of how commerce operates, driven by companies like Walmart, Google, and OpenAI. For investors, the opportunity lies not only in the ecosystem players but also in the infrastructure enabling this new paradigm.

Market Growth: A $3 Trillion Opportunity by 2030

Agentic commerce is poised to disrupt traditional e-commerce. According to a Morgan Stanley report, agentic shoppers could represent $190 billion to $385 billion in U.S. e-commerce spending by 2030, capturing 10% to 20% of market share. Meanwhile, McKinsey projects a broader economic impact, estimating that agentic commerce could generate $1 trillion in U.S. retail revenue by the end of the decade and potentially reach global projections of $3 trillion to $5 trillion by 2030. Early adoption data shows that 23% of Americans made purchases using AI in the past month. These figures underscore a market in rapid ascent, with infrastructure and ecosystem players positioned to capture outsized value.

Ecosystem Leaders: Walmart, Google, and OpenAI

Walmart has emerged as a pioneer in embedding itself into AI-driven commerce. Its partnership with OpenAI allows customers to shop via ChatGPT using an Instant Checkout feature, enabling natural language interactions for meal planning, restocking, and product discovery. Walmart's CEO, Doug McMillon, has emphasized that this initiative is part of a broader strategy to become the "preferred fulfillment partner" within AI interfaces. By integrating its catalog into leading AI platforms, Walmart aims to dominate the backend of agentic commerce, ensuring it remains the go-to fulfillment provider regardless of where consumers initiate requests.

Google, meanwhile, is leveraging its AI capabilities to build a Conversational Commerce agent that enhances conversions and revenue per visitor through intelligent shopping journeys. The company's Agent2Agent (A2A) protocol, developed in collaboration with partners, enables complex coordination between customer, supplier, and logistics agents. This infrastructure positions Google to monetize both consumer and B2B agentic commerce, particularly as it expands its AI agent ecosystem.

OpenAI's role is equally pivotal. The company's Agentic Commerce Protocol (ACP), developed with Stripe, has streamlined agent-to-agent transactions, enabling seamless purchases across platforms like Shopify. OpenAI's projected annual recurring revenue is expected to surge from $6 billion to $20 billion, reflecting its dominance in the foundational AI models powering agentic commerce.

Infrastructure Providers: The Unsung Heroes of Agentic Commerce

While ecosystem leaders like Walmart and Google dominate headlines, infrastructure providers are the backbone of this transformation. Startups such as Skyfire Systems and Vouched Identity are building the protocols and authentication tools necessary for secure, scalable agent interactions. Skyfire, for instance, has raised $8.5 million to develop an open payment protocol for autonomous transactions, eliminating reliance on traditional payment methods. Vouched Identity's $17 million Series A round focuses on agentic identity verification, ensuring businesses can trust AI agents.

In the security and compliance space, Zenity and Akamai are addressing critical challenges. Zenity's $38 million Series B funding aims to secure AI agents and low-code applications, while Akamai's collaboration with Visa on the Trusted Agent Protocol authenticates AI agents to prevent fraud. These infrastructure investments are essential for mainstream adoption, as 60% of consumer–AI interactions already involve questions like, "What should I buy?"

Investment Trends: A Premium for AI-Enabled Commerce

The financial potential of agentic commerce is further validated by valuation premiums for AI-enabled startups. According to Digital Commerce 360, AI-driven commerce platforms commanded a median pre-money valuation of $82 million in Q4 2025, compared to $67 million for non-AI peers. This premium reflects demonstrated capabilities in automation, conversion, and customer service-areas where agentic commerce excels.

Moreover, infrastructure funding is accelerating. CB Insights reports 30 generative engine optimization (GEO) deals in 2025, with agentic commerce startups like Natural and Clerk securing significant capital for payments and authentication solutions. OpenAI's rapid growth trajectory, coupled with Walmart's and Google's strategic bets, suggests that early-stage infrastructure providers will continue to attract investor interest.

Conclusion: A Multi-Trillion-Dollar Ecosystem Awaits

Agentic commerce is not a distant future-it is here, reshaping retail AI and creating a multi-trillion-dollar opportunity. For investors, the key lies in identifying both the ecosystem leaders (Walmart, Google, OpenAI) and the infrastructure providers enabling their success. As AI agents become the primary interface for shopping, the companies that build the protocols, authentication systems, and payment networks will reap the most significant rewards. The next decade promises a redefinition of commerce, and those who invest in its foundation today will be well-positioned to capitalize on its exponential growth.