Ripple Settles With SEC For $50 Million, XRP ETF Approval Odds Rise To 86% By 2025

Ripple Labs’ legal battle with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has reached a resolution that could reshape XRP’s future. The case, centered around allegations that Ripple illegally sold XRP as an unregistered security, concluded with Ripple agreeing to pay a $50 million settlement—less than half of the initial $125 million penalty. Importantly, Ripple admitted no wrongdoing. This settlement marks a key moment in U.S. crypto regulation, signaling a potential softening in enforcement tone and offering clarity to market participants long wary of SEC actions.

The agreement has already sparked renewed optimism in the XRP community and is seen as a regulatory green light that could accelerate institutional engagement. With legal uncertainty behind it, speculation is intensifying around the approval of an XRP-based exchange-traded fund (ETF). ETF Store President Nate Geraci has called it “obvious” that a spot XRP ETF will eventually gain approval. He expects major players like BlackRock and Fidelity to lead the charge, given XRP’s ranking as the third-largest non-stablecoin cryptocurrency by market capitalization. On the crypto prediction platform Polymarket, users assign an 86% probability that an XRP ETF will be approved by the end of 2025. The growing consensus underscores institutional readiness to embrace XRP—provided regulatory clarity is maintained.

Despite bullish fundamentals, XRP’s technical setup has turned defensive. The price currently trades at $2.21, down nearly 6% over the past 24 hours. The recent breakdown from a symmetrical triangle pattern, combined with a bearish engulfing candlestick on the 4-hour chart, confirms downside momentum. XRP has fallen below the 50 EMA at $2.37 and breached its pivot at $2.31, both now acting as resistance. The RSI is hovering near 23, signaling deeply oversold conditions. Support lies at $2.13, with further levels at $2.01 and $1.89. A recovery above $2.31 could ease pressure, but trend bias remains bearish until a close above $2.47. Traders should monitor for stabilization above support and volume confirmation before positioning for upside. Fundamentally, the long-term case for XRP appears to be strengthening—but near-term, the technical picture suggests caution.

Key Takeaways: Ripple settles with SEC for $50 million, boosting regulatory clarity. XRP ETF speculation builds, with 86% odds of approval by 2025. XRP trades at $2.21; breakdown below $2.31 signals near-term bearish bias.