Ripple vs. SEC Settlement Looms, XRP Gains 340% Post-Election

The legal battle between Ripple and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) may be nearing its conclusion, with a potential settlement on the horizon. According to reports, the case could be resolved in the coming days or weeks if the two parties reach a private agreement. This development comes as the SEC, under the leadership of President Donald Trump, has paused or dismissed most crypto investigations initiated by the previous administration.

The Ripple case has been a notable exception to the recent dismissals, but recent reports suggest that a resolution is imminent. Fox Business journalist Eleanor Terret cited sources familiar with the matter, stating that the SEC vs. Ripple case is in the process of wrapping up. The primary sticking point appears to be Judge Analisa Torres’s ruling, which imposed a $125 million fine on Ripple for the institutional sale of XRP and a permanent injunction against selling XRP to institutional investors.

Pro-XRP attorney Jeremy Hogan noted that the only way the case could be resolved quickly is if Ripple and the SEC reach a private settlement agreement. This agreement would address the contentious issues, including the fine and the injunction. The outcome of this case could have significant implications for the cryptocurrency market, particularly for XRP, which has been under regulatory scrutiny for over four years.

If the case is dismissed, it could provide much-needed regulatory clarity for XRP, potentially lifting the cap on its upside. While some argue that the recent rally in XRP prices has already priced in regulatory clarity, the speculation around an ETF approval for XRP remains a significant factor. At the time of reporting, XRP's post-US election gain had slightly dropped to 340%, valued at $2.2 on price charts.

Market sentiment and predictions vary widely. On Polymarket, bettors were divided, with some expecting XRP to reach $3.5 by the end of March, while others anticipated a drop to $1.7. Deribit Options traders also had mixed expectations, with a 15% probability of XRP reclaiming $3 and a 90%-100% chance of it dipping below $2. Despite these predictions, the selling pressure on centralized exchanges has remained flat since mid-January, suggesting that XRP has maintained its election gains while other cryptocurrencies have retraced.

The key support level for XRP has been $2 since December, coinciding with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. The golden ratio of 61.8% level is at $1.6. Losing the $2 support could change the market structure and embolden bears to seek lower levels, potentially down to $1.6 or $1.4 if market sentiment worsens. The outcome of the Ripple vs. SEC case and the potential ETF approval will be crucial in determining the future direction of XRP and the broader cryptocurrency market.