Ripple-SEC Case May Settle Before April 16, 90% Likelihood

The ongoing legal battle between Ripple Labs and the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) over the classification of XRP has reached a critical juncture. The case, which began in 2020, centers around the SEC's allegation that XRP is an unregistered security. The significance of April 16, 2025, lies in the anticipated resolution of the case, which could come through a settlement, court decision, or further legal disputes.

Pro-XRP attorney Fred Rispoli predicts that the case will likely resolve before Ripple is required to submit its next legal response, with a nearly 90% likelihood. On April 16, Ripple is scheduled to present its appellate brief to the court, addressing the SEC’s objection to Judge Analisa Torres’ 2023 decision that XRP programmatic transactions were not securities offers. However, Rispoli suggests that there is only a 10% chance that Ripple will file this brief, as he anticipates a settlement between the parties or the SEC withdrawing from the appeal.

The optimism surrounding the outcome of the SEC case is bolstered by recent developments. The SEC held a confidential meeting on April 10, just before the filing deadline, which has led market watchers and XRP investors to speculate that the agency may reconsider its stance on the case. The timing of these meetings, occurring shortly before the enforcement action meeting date, suggests significant developments, although the contents remain confidential.

The XRP price has been volatile due to the ongoing legal battle, with fluctuations in response to court decisions and potential settlements. The fundamental disagreement between the SEC and Ripple revolves around the classification of XRP digital tokens. The SEC seeks to treat them as securities under strict regulations, while Ripple argues otherwise. The 2023 court decision, which partially protected Ripple through Judge Torres’ verdict on XRP’s programmatic trades, marked a significant milestone in the legal battle and provided guidance for other digital assets.

Ripple and the XRP community view this judgment as progress, despite the fact that direct institutional deals with XRP remain subject to security regulations. The SEC's ongoing confusion has caused XRP price declines and diminished investor trust. A settlement established before April 16 could affect Ripple and XRP, potentially demonstrating the SEC’s new friendliness toward the digital asset field.

This date is particularly important due to the advanced state of crypto regulation in 2025. The legal battle at Ripple has become vital as it sets a precedent for other crypto firms facing legal actions from both Coinbase and Binance, alongside other defendants. A favorable outcome from the Ripple-SEC dispute, through SEC withdrawal or legal trial verdict dismissal, would give crypto firms the confidence to limit government agency overreach and obtain better details about token classification guidelines.

If Ripple files its appellate brief, it would indicate that negotiations between the parties have failed, and both sides would prepare for an extended legal battle. Even with a verdict, the resolution of the case could still take numerous months, extending legal expenses and regulatory uncertainty. Rispoli’s prediction points to a positive market reaction if a resolution comes to pass before April 16, which would deliver particular advantages to XRP while it remains unstable due to ongoing court proceedings.

As April 16 approaches, observers are closely watching Ripple and the SEC, awaiting the outcome that will shape the future of crypto asset regulations in the United States. Attorneys, investors, and regulators will scrutinize the results of this date, seeking insights into how the United States will establish regulations for crypto assets.