Ripple Price Forecast: XRP Remains Under Pressure as Licensing Operations Expand Across Europe

XRP's price showed mixed performance on January 15, 2026, as Ripple continued to expand its regulatory footprint in Europe. The token traded around $2.11 at the time, having risen nearly 4% following news that Ripple received preliminary approval for an EMI license in Luxembourg. This development, however, did not lead to a sustained breakout above $2.17, as traders remained cautious amid a broader crypto market consolidation.

The EMI license marks a regulatory milestone for Ripple, potentially enabling it to offer regulated payment services across the European Union under a harmonized framework. Ripple stated that the approval from Luxembourg's CSSF is conditional on remaining requirements being fulfilled. If finalized, the license would allow the company to passport its services across all EU member states, avoiding the need for individual approvals in each country.

The regulatory wins for Ripple in recent weeks have included a similar EMI license in the UK. Last week, Ripple confirmed that its UK subsidiary secured regulatory approval from the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA). These licenses are part of a broader effort to position Ripple as a compliant player in the EU's tightening digital asset environment according to industry analysis.

Why Did This Happen?

The approval of Ripple's EMI license in Luxembourg is part of a strategic move to align the firm with the EU's Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) framework. This regulatory strategy aims to facilitate cross-border payments using XRP and other digital assets, reducing friction and cost for institutional clients. Ripple's President, Monica Long, emphasized the importance of regulatory clarity in supporting the adoption of blockchain-based payment solutions.

The company now holds over 75 regulatory licenses globally, including in the U.S., Singapore, and Dubai. Ripple's expansion into Europe is particularly significant given the region's early adoption of digital asset regulations, which has made it a hub for financial innovation. According to Cassie Craddock, Ripple's Managing Director for the UK and Europe, Luxembourg's regulatory approach has helped position the country as a gateway to broader EU markets.

How Did Markets React?

Despite the positive regulatory developments, XRP's price remained range-bound, trading within a narrow window of $2.08 to $2.17. Technical indicators suggested that while short-term momentum was fading, the price held above key support levels like the 50-day EMA at $2.08. Traders were watching for a decisive break above the 100-day EMA at $2.21 to confirm a bullish turn in the near term.

Inflows into XRP ETFs have remained steady, with cumulative inflows reaching $1.26 billion. This trend reflects growing institutional interest in XRP, particularly as it becomes embedded in regulated payment flows. ETF inflows were reported to be around $11 million in recent trading sessions.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

Analysts are monitoring whether the EMI license in Luxembourg will translate into sustained demand for XRP through real payment volumes. While regulatory clarity has improved sentiment, the long-term success of XRP depends on its integration into institutional payment systems. The ability of Ripple to scale its cross-border payment infrastructure across the EU will be a critical factor.

The price action around $2.00 remains a focal point. A sustained drop below this level could trigger further technical weakness, with potential support targets at $1.82 and $1.61. Conversely, a breakout above $2.22 would signal a shift toward $2.40. Market watchers are also paying attention to Ripple's progress in securing a CASP license under MiCA, which would further align its operations with EU standards.

Institutional demand for XRP continues to be supported by declining exchange balances, which have dropped below 2 billion tokens from over 4 billion in late 2025. This trend is seen as a positive sign of accumulation and long-term holding behavior by institutional investors.

With regulatory hurdles being overcome and institutional adoption on the rise, XRP's path forward depends on both regulatory and market dynamics. Ripple's ability to navigate the evolving digital asset landscape will be a key determinant of XRP's performance in the coming months.