Ripple Price Forecast: XRP ETF Inflows and Rising Retail Demand Strengthen Recovery Outlook

Ripple's XRP is trading sideways above support at $2.00 as of January 14, 2026, despite steady inflows into XRP spot ETFs. The token has remained in a narrow range, with mixed signals emerging from on-chain activity and retail demand. ETF inflows continue to support XRP's price, but broader market uncertainty remains a factor.

XRP ETFs reported nearly $13 million in inflows on Tuesday, extending their cumulative inflow to $1.25 billion. This performance outpaces many other altcoins, suggesting growing institutional and retail interest. None of the five XRP ETFs recorded outflows, reinforcing positive sentiment.

The derivatives market for XRP has shown some signs of weakness, as futures Open Interest (OI) continues to decline. On Tuesday, OI averaged $3.93 billion, down from the recent peak of $4.55 billion. This trend indicates a cautious approach from investors, who may be reducing their exposure to potential volatility.

Why the Move Happened

Ripple's price action is influenced by a combination of macroeconomic sentiment and ETF dynamics. ETF inflows have continued to support XRP's price, even amid a decline in retail interest and on-chain activity. While the number of active XRP addresses has dropped, ETF inflows remain a stabilizing factor.

Retail interest in XRP has seen a minor uptick, reflected in a slight increase in futures Open Interest. However, this increase remains below the yearly high of $4.55 billion recorded in early January. This suggests that while some traders are leaning into risk, the overall market remains cautious.

How Markets Responded

Technical indicators for XRP are showing a mixed picture. The token is currently trading between the 50-day EMA at $2.08 and the 100-day EMA at $2.21. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has stabilized at 57 on the daily chart, suggesting that bulls have a slight edge over bears. However, the MACD indicator is signaling caution, with the blue line poised to cross below the red signal line if downward pressure increases.

A breakout above the 50-day EMA is critical for XRP's short-term bullish potential. If the token manages to close above $2.08, it could target a 9% move toward the 100-day EMA at $2.21. Traders are closely watching for a confirmation of this trend before committing to larger positions.

Despite the positive ETF inflows, XRP has struggled to maintain an upward trend due to declining on-chain activity. The number of active XRP addresses has fallen by 17.5% to 42,600 as of January 13, 2026, from a peak of 51,500 in early January. This decline indicates reduced user engagement and could signal further challenges for XRP's recovery.

What Analysts Are Watching

The key technical levels for XRP include the 50-day EMA at $2.08 and the 100-day EMA at $2.21. A sustained close above $2.08 would likely validate the bullish case, while a break below $2.00 could accelerate a correction. Analysts are also monitoring the RSI and MACD indicators for signs of momentum shifts.

Retail and institutional demand remain pivotal for XRP's performance. If the OI trend continues to rise, it could support a short-term breakout toward $3.00. However, given the recent decline in OI, many analysts expect a more cautious approach from traders in the near term.

The broader crypto market is also influencing XRP's trajectory. Bitcoin and Ethereum have seen significant ETF inflows, which could create a positive spillover effect on other altcoins. Bitcoin ETFs recorded $753 million in inflows on Tuesday, the highest single-day inflow since October. This trend suggests that investor sentiment in the crypto space remains generally positive, which could provide XRP with additional support.

Investors are closely watching whether XRP can maintain its position above the 50-day EMA and avoid a breakdown below $2.00. A sustained move below this level would likely increase the risk of further declines, potentially pushing the price toward the January 1 low of $1.81.