Ripple's Legal Victory Boosts XRP ETF Approval Odds to 86%

Following the resolution of a protracted legal dispute between Ripple and the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), there is a growing sense of optimism within the crypto community regarding the potential approval of an XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF). On March 19, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse announced that the SEC would be dropping its appeal against Ripple, effectively ending the $1.3 billion unregistered securities suit that had been ongoing since December 2020.

Nate Geraci, president of the advisory firm ETF Store, expressed his belief that the approval of an XRP ETF is imminent. In a post on X, Geraci stated that it is "obvious" that the SEC will approve an XRP ETF in the near future. He further predicted that major asset managers such as BlackRock and Fidelity would likely be involved in offering the asset.

This optimism is also reflected in the betting market on the crypto platform Polymarket. As of March 26, Polymarket users have given an 86% chance that an XRP-based ETF product will be approved by the end of this year. The bet will be resolved if an XRP ETF receives approval from the SEC by December 31. However, the odds of an XRP ETF being approved before July 31 are significantly lower, at 42%.

Despite being a gambling site, Polymarket users’ predictions have historically been very accurate. A Dune Analytics dashboard studying the accuracy of Polymarket bets showed that the platform had been accurate by over 90% a month before betting markets were resolved. This high level of accuracy adds credibility to the current optimism surrounding the approval of an XRP ETF.

The resolution of the legal battle between Ripple and the SEC has been a significant milestone for the crypto community. However, the end of this dispute did not result in a substantial market movement. On March 19, XRP was trading at $2.32, and at the time of writing, it hovers around $2.44, representing a 5% increase. Analysts have suggested that this new development had already been priced in, as the resolution was widely expected. Nicolai Sondergaard, research analyst at Nansen, previously stated that the market had anticipated the outcome of the legal battle.