Ripple CEO Sees 80% Clarity Act Passage Odds-More Bullish Than Prediction Markets

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has raised his confidence in the U.S. Clarity Act, forecasting an 80% chance it will pass by the end of April. This estimate is higher than the 78% suggested by prediction markets. The bill, if passed, aims to bring regulatory clarity to the digital asset industry, especially for utility tokens like XRP according to analysis.

The Clarity Act seeks to resolve jurisdictional disputes between the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This would define the regulatory roles for different types of digital assets, offering certainty to market participants. Garlinghouse emphasized that institutional investors are waiting for these legal guardrails before entering the market.

Senate delays over stablecoin provisions have previously stalled the bill, but recent meetings with regulators and the White House have generated momentum. The legislation has already passed the House in July 2025. If it becomes law, it could provide a framework for stablecoin yields and unlock institutional liquidity in the crypto space.

Why Is the Clarity Act Important for Institutional Investors?

The Clarity Act is critical for institutional investors as it would eliminate regulatory ambiguity that currently prevents them from allocating capital to digital assets. Garlinghouse said that the bill would allow for clearer compliance requirements, including reporting and consumer protections on crypto exchanges. This clarity could encourage traditional financial institutions to treat digital assets as a legitimate asset class.

Institutional adoption is expected to bring significant capital into the crypto market. Ripple is preparing for this shift by investing in custody and treasury infrastructure, anticipating that the bill will create a favorable environment for institutional participation.

What Does Passage Mean for XRP and the Broader Crypto Market?

The passage of the Clarity Act could have a major impact on XRP and other utility tokens. Currently, XRP trades below $1.40 and is in a bearish zone. A regulatory resolution would remove uncertainty over its legal status and potentially re-rate its valuation. Garlinghouse noted that the bill could also decouple XRP from Bitcoin's price movements, allowing it to trade independently based on its fundamentals.

For the broader crypto market, U.S. regulatory clarity could serve as a global benchmark. Other countries often look to U.S. frameworks to shape their own policies. If the Clarity Act becomes law, it could influence international standards and increase demand for compliant digital assets.

How Are Regulators and Lawmakers Working to Resolve Disputes?

The White House has facilitated multiple meetings between the banking industry and crypto firms to address disagreements over stablecoin yield provisions. The Senate version of the bill includes a ban on offering rewards on idle stablecoin holdings, a provision that the crypto industry views as stifling innovation. Meanwhile, the banking sector argues that the bill could close perceived loopholes in the GENIUS Act.

Finding a middle ground is essential to passing the bill. Patrick Witt, a White House crypto policy adviser, has emphasized the importance of regulatory clarity to allow institutions to experiment with blockchain infrastructure and developers to build within the space.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune has indicated that he will schedule time for full Senate debate should the bill emerge from committee. This signals a commitment to passing the legislation despite lingering disagreements. A compromise remains key to unlocking the potential of the digital asset sector in the U.S.